As we know, BB made over 400 million which is good consider the budget was small, but still it's the movie that made least in the franchise. So would Paramount be happy if ROTB made over 500 million?

 

ROTB probably needs around 600 million to break even

 

No, the movie that made the least was TLK, because Paramount lost money on that film due to the costs involved.

Bumblebee, while it made less in the box office, was a significantly cheaper film and so actually did turn a profit.

Even if Bumblebee made $1 revenue, that's still more than the fat negative $100 million TLK lost.

 

I'd have to be privy to their arcane financing numbers to know anything for sure, but let's speculate a bit. This is all just me throwing numbers around, so take it with a grain of salt.

Bumblebee had a budget of 135mil, and 400mil was considered a modest success. Rise has a budget around 200mil, meaning the same return would need to be closer to 600mil to be considered a success.

But it's actually worse than that, because of the inflation spikes of the last few years and the longer time Rise has spent in production, it would need to make even MORE money than that (assuming it hasn't gone over budget), because a dollar today isn't worth as much as it was back when Bumblebee came out, and because investors have now had to wait longer to get a return on their investment, which they could have invested elsewhere.

On top of THAT, interest rates have risen, meaning if Bumblebee made a certain return on investment, traditional investing (even things like bonds and GICs) would now be more attractive profit-wise as an alternative to financing a movie than they were, and any loans now would be more expensive than they were when Bee came out, making a movie relying on those loans would be less profitable. This might not be relevant, though, since financing terms would have been worked out at the start of Rose's production.

 

Here's the thing: the amount of $ made is not always directly proportionate or even equivalent to how good the product is. The inverse can be true, too as there are AWESOME films that didn't do big numbers. Plus there were other factors concerning Bumblebee's performance:
1)Fatigue from the 1st 5 films (BB initially had a slow and cold reception-until folks slowly warmed up to it);
2)Being released against stiff competition (Aquaman, Mary Poppins for example);
3)The perception that Bumblebee was bringing more of the same deterrents that turned people away concerning the 1st 5 films;
4)Being released during Holiday Season 2018 vs. it's original planned Summer 2018 release,
and others.

Regarding ROTB, it would ultimately depend on whatever the budget is. I don't know what that is-and it would also depend on how well Paramount is doing financially as a whole. From what I understand, Joe Kosinski's TOP GUN 2 was a much-needed shot in the arm for Paramount's bank account, along with the recent SONIC film. This question ultimately would be best answered by Paramount's finance team IMHO. . .

 

Officially the budget for RotB is $200m, but that is not factoring in costs from the delays due to pandemic and the additional reshoots along with inflation.

Transformers 2007 had a budget of $150-200m and made $709.7m at the box office. Realistically, if you are using Rise Of The Beasts as a starter to a new trilogy you'd want it to echo the success of Transformers 2007.

In my view TF:RotB needs to earn around $710m+ in order for the trilogy to happen. This would put it as the fourth highest of the seven Transformers movies, placing it between Transformers 2007 and Revenge Of The Fallen.

Anything less than $650m and I think they'll scrap plans for the trilogy unless the Cybertron prequel movie in 2024 is a huge success. We've notably had no sign that a sequel to RotB will enter development anytime soon so they are almost certainly waiting to see how RotB does before starting work on a sequel.

 

As I recall, the rule of thumb for determining the break-even point was a movie must make 2.5 times the film's budget. This assumes the marketing budget is at least the same as the budget for the movie itself, plus an additional 50% for miscellaneous costs.

This is why you can get TLK making over $650 million at the box office and it was a bomb for Paramount, while Bumblebee made under that much but was able to turn a profit.

 

The Batman: The film was a commercial success, and grossed over $770 million against a $185–200 million budget. Though keep in mind, The Batman budget originally was 100 million but it got higher because of the delay and covid delays of filming. Thor 4 had a 250 million budget and dissapointed with 760 million.

So RotB should do 800 million.

 

Honestly I think we are all just speculating on these numbers. I don't think there's a clear, mathematic way to know if a movie makes profit or not. It depends on how they finance it, how much marketing they're willing to pay.

Take one example: of the 4 current Monsterverse movies, none have exceeded 600 millions at the worldwide box-office, as they are navigating between 400 and 560 at best. Their budget is a little bit smaller than ROTB (between 150 and 200 each time) but they are apparently successes because they are making more of them in the future. And we can't even say that they are saved by the critical reception, as the vast majority of them received bayverse-like reviews across the world ("dumb but fun").

My point is, so much has changed since TLK in 2017, and I can't even think that this movie numbers will be taken into account for a comparison. I also think that ROTB would need to at least reach something like 700M to make a good profit, but in today's landscape in terms of box-office, we can't be to sure of what is or is not a good box-office result. For example, we had the huge surprise of Top Gun this year that no one was expecting, we had the crash of Black Adam (which, in his case, is a *huge* bomb). We currently have Black Panther 2 making only half of what the first one made (and that doesn't make it a failure at all), and Avatar 2 having an "okay" opening, not the failure some were expecting, not the success Disney was aiming at.

June 2023 is still far away, and I hope the movie will succeed, but we don't know yet what a "success" would be in his case.

 

Thought this might be relevant to this discussion.  

 

Bingo!

 

Based on the trailer and the mixed reviews I'll be surprised if it makes more than 500 mil globally.

 

I don't see how it would make less than 500M. Bumblebee made 460 with 4 big competitors alongside him and the recent backlash of TLK. But as I said before, we can't know yet what it will make but only speculate, however in all honesty, I'm willing to bet that it will make more than 500.

 

I estimate 750 million. Paramount will barely break even, cause ROTB is competing with GOTG, Indiana Jones,Flash and the biggest of them all spiderverse. I think it'll do better than flash for sure (because of the whole ezra miller situation), may do better than Indiana Jones (if the leaks are true), not too sure about GOTG cause generally it'll be a good movie but in an extremely far-fetched hypothetical scenario maybe people dont go to the movies for GOTG because of the whole DC situation(100% this is not happening but a imaginary scenario that's all). I think GOTG at 1,Indiana Jones at 2,ROTB at 3, Spider-verse at 4 and flash at dead last.

 

There is no way spiderverse will be that big. I expect Indy 5 to be the big hit.

 

I'd like to point out that, we all know what happens once this movie makes a dime, right?

 

Guardians of the Galaxy comes out at the beginning of May, so it will not be a huge deal for ROTB, same as Indy which comes out at the end of June. Spiderverse, as much as I loved the first one and am hyped for the sequel, is an animated movie, and even if I think it will do better than the original, there's no way it will be above all the others. As for GOTG, as it stands, I believe this movie is going to be the #1 of all these. The Flash is almost already dead considering the whole Ezra Miller controversy and the incoming reboot of DC movies (we don't even have a full trailer for it).

The interesting thing we will have to see is if all these big blockbusters cannibalize each other or if they manage to all do well. I believe we won't be in a situation similar to December 2018, where Aquaman made 1.1 billion compared to the 460M of Bumblebee and 350 of Mary Poppins and Spiderverse. But I think that none of these movies will break the billion mark. GOTG is hyped, but none of the 2022 Marvel movies crossed 1B, even Doctor Strange or Black Panther, so I wouldn't be too confident on that as of now.

 

Yeah My bad got the dates mixed up, I think you're correct.

 

What? Mixed reviews? Did the movie come out early or something? You realize it’s only mostly tfw users that are overly negative right? An overwhelming majority of people outside of this forum are excited for the movie.

 

I'm not seeing ROTB even popping up in any "most anticipated movies" lists. Most comments I see outside of TFW range from "hey, that's Jazz!" to "hey, I remember Beast Wars, is this a reboot? If so, I might check it out". I wouldn't go as fas as calling this mild acknowledgement of this movie's existence as "excitement". Transformers movie trailers used to break the internet with buzz when people were still hoping one of those would be any good.