Discussion in 'Transformers News and Rumors' started by SilverOptimus, Mar 20, 2018.
So it was already screened but there will be another one on friday?
Conrad praised Justice League before it's release, so I trust him about as far as I can throw him.
Yes it has a positive buzz but ima have to disagree with the box office I think it'll do fine imo but I respect your opinon
I think it will have a relatively soft opening weekend, and then its success will depend heavily on word-of-mouth.
A bit too early for predictions, I would think.
Still a solid prediction all things considered.
When a movie is done, it's sometimes best to get hands off on it. Otherwise you run the risk of over-editing it, and making it bad because you overanalyze every aspect to death. It's kind of common in creative circles to do that. One of those lessons you have to learn on when to say enough is enough. Some polishing is okay, but there is a point of overdoing it too, and many movies/shows have been the victims of that self-cannibalization. So it's not a matter of rushing or not. It's a matter of knowing when the final product is done and ready and to have faith in your vision for it and the final cut. Like sanding a piece of wood, sometimes you can oversand it until it's brittle or nothing is left even if you meant well.
Though they should likely push the release up some. November would be a better time, like around Thanksgiving to bite some into black Friday sales/shopping and give parents time to get Bumblebee movie toys from kid demands instead of the immediacy of right before Christmas. But then there's also the potential of boosted ticket sales because of families going to theaters together during Christmas holidays like Star Wars has been benefitting from, which gives Bumblebee some of the run off from those that get sold out as well as those going to see it directly. And they don't want to compete with Infinity War at all either, so some distance from that will help. Same as how some of the other movies benefit from that with each other. Unlike Aquaman, Bumblebee is going to have more from a merchandise push of things kids want, so that demand needs gestation and buying time to make it a hotly sought after item. Whereas Spider-verse, Solo, and Aquaman are less likely to become rare items during the holidays because of the abundant material from their other franchise movies or series(as well as only Solo itself getting a likely dedicated toyline between those). Bumblebee on the other hand needs the enticed viewers to generate that demand because of his new vehicle mode and characters.
But having it in theaters during the Christmas family rush is a good idea too. That one's kind of a coin flip depending on what's the bigger want. Strong box office returns or strong holiday merchandise sales growth. But it's also transformers and merchandise sales growth is likely to be sustained/pre-planned purchases by parents because of the holidays. Transformers is usually one of those safe gift buys for kids, and it could work in favor for many parents that shop ahead and then take their kid to see the film before Christmas eve to build pre-planned present hype. And having it around Christmas instead also lets it stay clear of Infinity War, and lets it benefit from Marvel burnout that Spider-verse may get because of how overly hyped Infinity war is that it may leave many Marvel fans kind of 'spent' on Marvel material until next year because of the afterglow it caused. So December is good timing overall. Like I said it's kind of a coin flip. But with infinity war, I do have to concede that taking the 3rd or 4th box office slot with a 150+ likely 200m opening weekend is better if done with the winter holidays. Thanksgiving is usually a 1 movie family outing period, whereas winter holidays can often be several, sometimes back to back or same weekend. Especially if some families do the half go see one movie, and the other half go see a different one, and then they all go see one together. Lots of variables that work in favor of that December release.
Home release it should definitely do fine on(nearly all TF films had a barely 6 month turnaround to home release, same to other high profile profitable films, the home media release time has been getting shorter each passing year for even the hottest properties). But I think the initial box office may do fine too. While it may not be the top contender, I do think 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th are all going to be pretty close, and all are likely to be above 100-150m openings easily, probably higher because of the boosted holiday foot traffic and the audience runoff from each other into each other. The biggest films coming out besides Mary Poppins all have some similar audiences. Mary Poppins is the wild card here, because it has a much more diverse audience base that likely includes all the fans of the other movies too. So it really depends on how much families decide to go to the theater multiple times during the holiday foot traffic period, and how much families may split views with half going to Poppins and the other half Bumblebee, or the return trips for all to go to Spider-verse or Solo. Then it's also the question of theater experience and which is the most pleasant that keeps the kids entertained besides the film. Like arcades and the side eateries in a theater for it to be a more family fun outing. Unlike summer blockbuster films that are all competing for your dollars, family holiday film periods tend to have a different kind of experience and repeat experience. As it's not as much of a mad rush to find things to do with friends, and more a family united experience, and shared friends experience. There's usually more of a sense of holiday unity. Aquaman is likely another wild card here, as I expect people will check it out, but in order of top 5 box office returns, I do expect it to be number 5 with the order going something like:
2. Mary Poppins
With likely 3rd and 4th place swapping back and forth and having really close box office numbers, with maybe Bumblebee coming out ahead or spider-verse, not sure. That one can go either way because of too many variables in the audiences that may go see them or go see both and repeat viewings. But Solo and Poppins are likely to open at higher numbers than normal because of what they are. And Spider-verse has the fact it's animated that'll cause a spike, but then Bumblebee is Bumblebee and has a strong footing too. Really only Aquaman is the one that may not break 150m mark on opening. I expect the other 4 will and then some. Aquaman seems more like a 100-140m opening. While the film is anticipated, it's not one of DC's trinity that generates hype, and is depending on good word of mouth which won't happen until after it opens. Spider-verse is marvel but it's not MCU, but it is animated though it won't feature Peter Parker directly either(which could work to its benefit depending on how strong marvel burnout is going because of how big Infinity War is), so it could go either way. But it looks amazingly well-done and will draw in audiences that may not want to see the other films. Bumblebee is a safe bet, and with good word of mouth leading up to it, along with the director change, parents might be more open to taking kids to it and feel like it could be a heartfelt family experience. And Solo and Poppins are obvious big contenders then because of what they are and will likely keep battling for the top 2 spots for several weeks.
Any way you look at it though, it's going to be a good financial quarter for Hasbro. With 3 of those 5 all in their library of merchandise offerings, Hasbro is definitely going to come out on top overall with likely dominating the holiday shopping season in products bought from them. Especially with Infinity War hype probably still going strong too. So that's all 4 of what'll likely be the top kid demands on toys outside of electronic devices/video games. Which tbh, kind of makes it a shame they didn't do an Infinity war 4'' line as a throwback to Avengers 1's initial line. Hopefully they make up for that next time. Because if they had done that, they likely could have tripled their sales output for this year between that and all the other merchandise for things they make. They could have seen Avengers 1/IronMan 2 types of sales numbers and moving product on top of the Bumblebee product moving well, and Spider-verse material. *shrug* Sometimes some plans don't see full potential until too late to happen though. Maybe they'll try that again with phase 4 depending on what the plans were for Infinity War part 2 and how that changed.
How so? The facts about the movie aren't going to change in 8 months. The status of the movie brand isn't going to change.
It will open soft because of the quality and performance of TLK. If it gets positive word of mouth, it may pick up and have a decent performance. If the word of mouth is "more of the same", it will likely do even worse than TLK.
That's just a prediction though, obviously it will be either right, wrong, or somewhere in between.
Did they move Solo? It's been scheduled for Memorial Weekend for some time... (i'm on vacation, so i haven't been up on the news)
Edit: Making Star Wars still says it's coming in 65 days...
Yeah Solo is May.
Bad news, folks. The WonderCon screening is revealed to be 'A Quiet Place'.
we can atleast hope for a trailer
so we arent getting anything this month?
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