Movie theatres dying or Dead?

Discussion in 'Movies and Television' started by Tekkaman Blade, Oct 13, 2020.

  1. Tekkaman Blade

    Tekkaman Blade Professor of Animation

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  2. Hobbes-timus Prime

    Hobbes-timus Prime Well-Known Member

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    I think the theater going experience is dead as we know it. Theaters won't immediately go away, but it's going to become a much more specialized, bigger deal way of seeing a movie that it was. Like, if it used to be the same as listening to an album, now it's going to be like going to a concert.

    Frankly, I'm ready for it. I'm ready to stream the first run movies at my own home with my own food and drink on my own schedule.
     
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  3. Chopperface

    Chopperface Chadwick Forever

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    I feel like after the pandemic they’ll come back in very limited numbers. Not quite as limited as the amount of drive-ins pre-pandemic. But limited. I really, really don’t want to lose the AMC theater I’ve gone to since I was 3, though.
     
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  4. Dolza_Khyron

    Dolza_Khyron Well-Known Member

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    People are going to beaches in droves, protesting this and that. The pandemic isn't changing whether or not people are going to theaters. But, what will change it is whether or not Hollywood continues to release movies to theaters, or decides to just stick them to streaming services. The latter being the most likely scenario. As it means that they can spend less money, and make more. This might actually end up benefitting the movies themselves. Now they'll cost 100 million instead of 300 million + advertising.
     
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  5. mx-01 archon

    mx-01 archon Well-Known Member

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    The difference between a beach and a theatre is liability. If people are going to be dumbasses and gather in public places, regardless of social restrictions, that's on them. But if a business is inviting people to hunker down in an enclosed space with hundreds of other people, then that's another matter entirely.
     
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  6. Dolza_Khyron

    Dolza_Khyron Well-Known Member

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    Well, I mean, Disney World is open.
     
  7. mx-01 archon

    mx-01 archon Well-Known Member

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    Amusement parks are open-air, and they still put lots of guidelines for entry.
     
  8. Dolza_Khyron

    Dolza_Khyron Well-Known Member

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    So, those laws are just going to stay in effect indefinitely?
     
  9. SouthtownKid

    SouthtownKid Headmaster

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    I think they may depending on the outcome of the Presidential election. But that's about as far as we're allowed to follow that thread of discussion.
     
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  10. TheSoundwave

    TheSoundwave Bounty Hunter

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    I think theaters will always be around to some extent, as long as there's an audience for them. Look at something like...flip phones. They're basically obsolete at this point, but there are enough people using them that they're still sold at places like Best Buy. It takes a long, long time for things to truly die off. Basically the entire audience for them has to disappear. That being said, I do think we'll see a big shift towards streaming and direct-to-home video over the next half-decade. I think it will become the main form of distribution, with theaters eventually being secondary. Aside from the virus, I think more and more people are realizing that they'd rather just watch something from their couch than make a trip to a theater.

    Personally, I'm fine with a shift towards streaming. I do enjoy going to the theater here and there, but the older I get, the less I like making a trip to see a movie. I get tired of sitting in a sticky theater with sick people coughing on me and cheering so loud I miss the dialog. I get tired of sitting too close or too far away because my friends showed up late and there weren't any good seats left. It's worth putting up with that stuff for a big spectacle movie like Infinity War or Doctor Strange or something...but the vast majority of movies are just as enjoyable on home video. Like, I didn't need to see Toy Story 4 on the big screen.
     
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  11. Dolza_Khyron

    Dolza_Khyron Well-Known Member

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    Either way, I think my point still stands. People are stupid enough to do stupid things that could get them killed. The demand will still be there. The pandemic is not changing that. And, in many states, they're making it difficult, or even impossible to sue businesses over things related to the pandemic.

    Unfortunately, this means more of Hollywood's 300 + million dollar budget garbage films over saturating the market, drowning out all the smaller budgeted, better films. This means Hollywood isn't going to learn their lessons and try new things, or change strategies. Oh, no, this means Hollywood's going to double down on all this.

    I suspect if AMC/Regal were to go down, one or more of the major media companies are just going to buy them up.
     
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  12. Incepticon

    Incepticon |-+-|

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    Except that it isn't. There is no liability (yet) when it comes to catching the virus while you are out & about during a full blown pandemic. We have seen countless places named as the sources for this or that isolated outbreak - grocery stores, fitness centers, restaurants, pubs, hair dressers, etc etc etc. - and not one has been or can be sued for liability. It's on the people that willingly go to these places on their own accord knowing what the risks are - open air or closed air has nothing to do with it. Don't want to catch Covid by going to a movie theater during a pandemic? Then just don't go to a movie theater during a pandemic. Don't want to catch Covid by going to Disneyland during a pandemic? Then just don't go to Disneyland during a pandemic. The examples are endless. No one is gonna get blamed or face more financial ruin because dumb shits who don't NEED to go see a movie or have a dinner or whatever else CHOSE to go see a movie or have a dinner or whatever else. And thank christ for that - can you imagine what would be happening in sue-happy 'Murica right now if all those dullards were allowed to? Holeee shit.... it would be even more of a clusterfuck gong show... which is impossible to even imagine.

    Anyway...

    As for the main question at hand, I think and hope that most theaters will go the way of being a boutique industry moving forward for at least several years. The indie's who survive on peanuts will continue to survive on peanuts, and the giant chains with their billions of square feet megaplexes will get rightly fucked... as they should have years ago. The Billion+ Dollar box office is over for the foreseeable future... which Hollywood clearly hasn't learned to comprehend just yet. They will... once all these endlessly pushed back movies finally DO get released in theaters in 2021 or 2022 and they still completely tank. Then that's when we'll see a massive shift with how production budgets are allocated, how much actors are paid anymore... it will be a literal chain reaction from the very top to the very bottom. It's already started, as we know, and no denial or positive thinking in the world is gonna change it.
     
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  13. SouthtownKid

    SouthtownKid Headmaster

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    I think the opposite. I think if theaters die out and more things are created specifically for streaming services, the mega-blockbuster will be less viable, and we'll see the reemergence of the mid-budget movie.

    So actually, the darker things get for theaters, the more optimistic I feel about the future of movies.
     
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  14. Dolza_Khyron

    Dolza_Khyron Well-Known Member

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    Well, I certainly hope you're right. But, this is Hollywood, so, it's hard to feel optimistic about it.
     
  15. Hobbes-timus Prime

    Hobbes-timus Prime Well-Known Member

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    It already has. The theater chains are on the ropes.

    Hell, just yesterday Disney announced it's restructuring itself for a focus on Streaming, and today this happened: Disney Shares Climb On Wall Street’s Warm Embrace Of Restructuring Plan – Deadline

    The writing is on the wall and Hollywood already sees it. Restructuring the business is going to take a major and complicated overhaul, so I don't expect to see a ton of announcements follow this one immediately...but they are inevitable.
     
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  16. Dolza_Khyron

    Dolza_Khyron Well-Known Member

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    The Empire Strikes Back is one of the highest grossing theatrically released films of this year, and they didn't even really advertise it. And, many states theaters aren't even open yet. They're not open in my state. The demand is clearly still there.

    Some how I suspect that if these theaters were open, people would be going in droves. The only reason why they're not, is because most of them are closed.
     
  17. Hobbes-timus Prime

    Hobbes-timus Prime Well-Known Member

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    Dude, Empire Strikes Back is the 58th highest grossing domestic 2020 theatrical release: Domestic Box Office For 2020 - Box Office Mojo

    Look at that list. The Top 10 highest grossing movies of 2020 are all pre-pandemic. I mean, 10 of the Top 20 highest grossing movies of 2020 are actually 2019 releases whose "still in theaters at the beginning of 2020" takes are enough to put them on this year's list. 8 of those 2019 movies beat Tenet, the major release that was supposed to save theaters. That's a train wreck. That's evidence of the opposite of demand.

    Heck, Dolittle is in the Top 10 highest grossing movies and it was an unmitigated disaster of a release.

    It's over.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2020
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  18. Dolza_Khyron

    Dolza_Khyron Well-Known Member

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    Oh, maybe I mistook it for a different film. Either way, most of the theaters are still closed. The fact that they're making ANYTHING during this pandemic is proof that there is a demand. Let alone $3 million dollars. This is a film people could be watching on Blu Ray, or Disney's own streaming service.

    But, no, instead, there is enough people who went to see this film, to make Disney another $3 million dollars. That sounds like a demand to me.

    In that same list, Tenet made $323 million, New Mutants made $43 million, and War With Grandpa made $6 million. Again, with the majority of theaters still closed. In the middle of a pandemic. Enough people are willing to risk their lives to see these films, to still make millions of dollars. This sounds like a demand to me.

    And, all this is during the pandemic. Once these restrictions are lifted, you really think the demand won't bounce back up?

    If Hollywood doesn't make new films, these theaters will just play the old ones instead. Like they're already doing.
     
  19. Tekkaman Blade

    Tekkaman Blade Professor of Animation

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    And WB/At&T are doing the same thing. They did it first.

    The thing is at the rate things are going AMC and B&B may be out of business by the time restrictions are lifted. Both probably can't make it past December.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 13, 2020
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  20. Dolza_Khyron

    Dolza_Khyron Well-Known Member

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    Yea, which is why I suspect they'll either get bailouts or be bought up by one or more of the big media companies. I can't see Disney wanting to give up the billions of dollars they made previously with their films, once these restrictions/regulations are over.

    I see instead, Disney either buying up AMC and the other theater companies instead. You really think Disney thinks they're going to make $2 billion dollars on the next MCU film on streaming services? I sure don't. And, even if they do, I doubt they'd want to give up the $2 billion they'd make on top of that from the theaters.

    These companies want to make billions of dollars. That's what they are in business for. And, they're going to throw their money at everything that will make them money.