As someone who has used EMS and SAL on a regular basis, I can answer all your questions; The big picture is your box will arrive between 2 to 3 weeks. Japan Post picks up the package just like EMS but the difference is SAL waits inside a container bundle before shipping out. This bundle may take a week or two to fill up. Once filled, it's loaded on a plane and is sent to USPS. Right now your tracking most likely says "Origin Post is Preparing Shipment ", that means it's been dropped off into the bundle, it's out of Japan Post's hands and is in USPS' system. There is no update because you are in the "blackout" period. In my experience, it'll just be one more week, unless it lands on a weekend (then customs) which pushes it to the third week. People who paid EMS are getting theirs now, so you have a bit to wait. If you don't need it right away, SAL is totally worth it.