Is there a risk BB could flop?

Discussion in 'Transformers Movie Discussion' started by Theoutcast87, Oct 13, 2018.

  1. sideswipe3

    sideswipe3 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Posts:
    1,958
    Trophy Points:
    232
    Likes:
    +3,829
    Depends on if the movie has a hook attached to it that throws it back in the water after flopping.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. Ash from Carolina

    Ash from Carolina Junior Smeghead

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2007
    Posts:
    15,966
    Trophy Points:
    337
    Likes:
    +3,232
    I think you have to also toss in that the trailers have been getting positive buzz as well. It seems like having a strong series of trailers can still have big impact on the box office. Likely doesn't hurt that the trailers seem to be selling this idea that this movie is different while still being popular trailers.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  3. Venixion

    Venixion Its always the middle of the night in Moonside

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Posts:
    25,383
    News Credits:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    362
    Location:
    California
    Likes:
    +40,793

    That's a pretty good answer. :D 
     
  4. Blam320

    Blam320 Assembly Inventor

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2016
    Posts:
    7,676
    News Credits:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    247
    Location:
    Crux Prime
    Likes:
    +11,184
    TLJ must have really soured your opinions if you're letting them bleed into a completely unrelated movie.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  5. Appleseed

    Appleseed Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2015
    Posts:
    527
    News Credits:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    167
    Likes:
    +476
    Bumblebee won't flop, as you can see there are mostly positive reaction for the trailers..i think total worldwide gross will be around 600-800 milion.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  6. TheWarPathGuy

    TheWarPathGuy As cool as the earth is blue!

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2018
    Posts:
    6,223
    Trophy Points:
    247
    Location:
    Illinois, Chicago
    Likes:
    +7,457
    I know my comment was wrong a bit. But I think I'll enjoy bumblebee more as a film. It is looking great so far.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. Dotmshockwave

    Dotmshockwave Senior Robotic Citizen

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2014
    Posts:
    1,572
    News Credits:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    232
    Likes:
    +1,294
    Hell anything is possible with movie box office. Jumanji came out and literally blew everyone's mind with how much it made. Either way, I think bee will be fine. It might not crush it, but it will definitely make back its production budget. I honestly think aquaman and Bee are gonna play off of eachother rather well, especially if both end up being good films.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. TFXProtector

    TFXProtector TFW2005 Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2011
    Posts:
    27,038
    News Credits:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    392
    Likes:
    +38,501
    And that's fine, but just because you don't like something doesn't mean it isn't successful. It might not work for you, but it will for others. Your argument could be used for anything, really. And test audiences give us false hope. You can have a successful run of small audiences (and I'm talking 5-10 people instead of a filled auditorium) and still fall flat with the wider audience.

    Critics LOVED Steven Soderbergh's Haywire, but the audience absolutely HATED it. With a passion. Just because critics (large enough to be a test audience of their own) liked it, doesn't mean it was an actually good film. It wasn't. It was boring, meandering, badly acted (though, to be fair to Gina Carano, it was basically her first big screen leading role.) and ended kind of pointlessly on top of being a mystery/conspiracy flick that when it was all done, you found you didn't care one bit about.

    The Last Jedi is a mixed bag for people because, in a way, it does change and somewhat mature the Star Wars storyline and bring it more in line with reality, rather than fantasy. In reality, a man like Luke would be disillusioned with how life turned out and how he, the chosen one, couldn't bring balance to the Force by himself and he wasn't what he was promised to be. Only in the end did he see that he was and how he could bring balance to the Force by showing Rey how to be the Jedi he couldn't, to be the next generation. He didn't really fail anyone, he was just heartbroken and needed hope like the rest of us and he finally got it.

    For some, that's too real and takes us out of the fantasy of it all. Which I admit, is a bitter pill to swallow. I go to films like that because they aren't real because they do take me out of the real world if only for 2.5 hours, but on second thought, I do appreciate my movies maturing and taking thoughtful looks at what was once fantastical and grounds it a bit. Call it age, call it wisdom, call it growing up, but it was kind of necessary to some degree.

    I agree it seemed misplaced and out of character, I do, but it all makes sense if you look at it through a different lens for once.

    That said, just because something is positive or negative at the outset doesn't mean that's how it'll be in the end with the finished product. Don't always bank on test screenings, don't always listen to critics, see it for yourself and enjoy it or hate it for yourself. That's the problem with the internet and social networking, because it takes away all the surprise, gives a voice to too many voices drowning out hope and if we go in with the expectations of others, we don't trust our own and miss out on a possibly great experience.

    Have a little bit of hope, it's not all bad.

    I get what you're saying, but I also get what he's saying, too. Test screenings, in this day and age, are a bane of existence. There's too much word of mouth and too many people giving opinions when it should be a surprise like old movie trailers used to be. It messes with the experience for us.

    No, no. You feel how you feel, don't let someone take that from you, but at least try and have an open mind and don't raise your expectations, but don't lower them so much that you have no hope. Find a middle ground, it's honestly the best way to experience anything. Let the film dictate how you feel in the end based on its own merits, not someone else's opinion.

    Jumanji surprised me, for sure. I'll be honest, I really didn't care for the original. I love Robin Williams, I do, but I couldn't even finish it. It bored me. *shrugs* This sequel, however, was genuinely entertaining and a LOT of fun. It was really well made and lampooned a little bit, which I appreciate. I do think Bumblebee will be fine, as well. If Jumanji could compete with The Last Jedi (regardless of the audience) at the box office level then Bumblebee can definitely contend with Aquaman and Mary Poppins Returns. Will it win them all? I doubt it, but I think it'll be in the top 3 for the season/holiday and honestly...that ain't too bad.

    Considering TLK? That's a miracle.
     
    • Like Like x 3
  9. Transformers Database

    Transformers Database Ramdeen Studios

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2017
    Posts:
    731
    News Credits:
    27
    Trophy Points:
    172
    Likes:
    +1,743
    Twitter:
    Instagram:
    YouTube (Legacy):
    Plus IGN's box office assumptions for the film were more on the high side. So I guess that's a good sign.

    Predicting the Top 10 Fall Box Office Movies - IGN
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2018
    • Like Like x 1
  10. grimlock1972

    grimlock1972 Optimus, serving up the primest of ribs since 1984

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    Posts:
    20,361
    News Credits:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    362
    Likes:
    +2,406
    There is always a risk any movie could flop, could be a small risk, could be a big one. It's always a possibility.
     
  11. Shatter

    Shatter Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2018
    Posts:
    144
    Trophy Points:
    42
    Location:
    Cybertron
    Likes:
    +91
    Whenever they first started filming they claimed it was 60 million. But now I think it’s definitely over 120 million.
     
  12. snokoan

    snokoan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2017
    Posts:
    4,123
    News Credits:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    222
    Likes:
    +4,009
    No it's still 60 million the rest is for the marketing
     
  13. Shatter

    Shatter Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2018
    Posts:
    144
    Trophy Points:
    42
    Location:
    Cybertron
    Likes:
    +91
    I doubt that considering the two main villains are triple changers and it’s a transformers film. Plus all the cybertron scenes.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  14. SilverOptimus

    SilverOptimus Movie News Monster Moderator News Staff

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2009
    Posts:
    11,469
    News Credits:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    362
    Likes:
    +17,430
    Don't forget the Star Wars debacle these days. With a juggernaut property like Star Wars, you'd expect success all the time but Solo never managed to reach half its breakeven value. Financially, it's a bigger failure than TLK.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  15. TFXProtector

    TFXProtector TFW2005 Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2011
    Posts:
    27,038
    News Credits:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    392
    Likes:
    +38,501
    Indeed. The problem is, it's not the quality/content of the film that's dictating that, it's the people and their wallets. I could see their argument if the film is/was awful, but sometimes they're not and it's the people pulling the strings. Solo was actually quite enjoyable simply because it wasn't really a piece of the bigger puzzle (sure it tied in) it was just a little side story with a lot of humor and fun, which made it a nice getaway from the whole "Religion/Politics aren't as powerful as a child's love for others. This magical child will save the peoples with a light-up sword thingy." aspect of it all. Don't get me wrong, I still love the overarching theme of the whole series, but sometimes it's nice to sit back and watch a silly pirate with a heart of gold rob a train with a big walking dog for gits n' shiggles.

    Then you have films like TLK that ARE absolute garbage and still find some way to make some kind of money. The problem isn't Disney/Lucasfilm, the problem is the people.

    I'm not saying Disney is scot-free here, they're not, some of their choices have been questionable, at best. Letting Kathleen Kennedy tweet things like "The Force is female!" divides people, not unite them. (And of course, the Force is female, just as much as it is male. No one ever stated otherwise. It only becomes an issue if one makes it one.)

    With that in mind, I do think Bumblebee could be a big hit, perhaps even massive. I just hope it deserves to be.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  16. SouthtownKid

    SouthtownKid Headmaster

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2011
    Posts:
    26,059
    News Credits:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    357
    Likes:
    +10,543
    There is a huge chance it could bomb. From what I see, it almost looks like a certainty. Even if there was no competition whatsoever that weekend. And to be fair, Aquaman could EASILY flop. Mortal Engines could flop. Mary Poppins is probably bulletproof. If Disney could find success with that relentlessly mediocre Oz movie, Mary Poppins is a layup. But Aquaman and Mortal Engines are almost a non-factor. I don't think Bumblebee will need any help to bomb on its own.

    I like Transformers and I hope this movie rebounds the franchise, but once a series has the kind of negative momentum TF does, it's almost impossible to turn around without a lengthy cool down period.
     
  17. primal789

    primal789 Prime

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2014
    Posts:
    4,599
    News Credits:
    29
    Trophy Points:
    222
    Likes:
    +1,793
    That always drives me nuts.Solo was a decent movie,even if no one asked for it,it was a fun experience but now because fans didn't go to see it the spin-offs are postphoned.
     
  18. WishfulThinking

    WishfulThinking The world has moved on...we've always said.

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2014
    Posts:
    20,763
    News Credits:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    372
    Location:
    Wichita, KS
    Likes:
    +26,824
    Facebook:
    Twitter:
    FYI, IMDB estimates the budget for Solo was $300 million. Globally, it made $392 million. It made money - more than the breakeven number.

    We can't account for marketing costs and I wish people would stop doing that. Marketing costs are a separate account and the budget for all films is set each year. Even if the film was never made, that money would have been spent on some other blockbuster for the year. It's a third rail accounting trick fans like to pull out when no one EVER knows what the actual numbers anyway.

    The problem is that movie studios are increasingly counting their chickens before they hatch. Solo needs to make "X" amount of profit in order to fund "Y" movie. That's where all these "timeline release dates" shenanigans come from - profits from Thor benefit production on Avengers which helps fund Ant Man, etc. So, when a film doesn't perform to expectations, even if it makes money, it can throw a massive wrench into the production of other movies because the studio was relying too heavily on the returns.
     
  19. Bumblethumper

    Bumblethumper old misery guts

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2007
    Posts:
    9,754
    News Credits:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    332
    Likes:
    +1,653
    Even if there were zero marketing costs to account for, the studio doesn't get 100% of box office gross. It is apparently closer to 50%, and even less for overseas which varies from country to country.

    Of course a lot of budgets are overstated anyway. They lump in a lot of overhead. Then there's product placement, merchandising and various tax incentive schemes in different countries, so even if a movie cost a lot to make, much of that expense may already have been paid for. The accounting is as creative as what ends up on the screen!

    I wouldn't concern myself with whether the studio makes money or not. I don't get a cut! It's not my job on the line or problem to worry about. The only thing that affects me is the movies that get cancelled or greenlit in the aftermath.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  20. HunterGreen2005

    HunterGreen2005 In-Stock

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2010
    Posts:
    10,938
    News Credits:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    312
    Likes:
    +33,524
    LOL!

    Sincerely,

    Michael Bay and his five tries. :eek: 

    P.S.... the three movies you mentioned will flop... just sayin :p