Coronavirus delaying shipments from China?

Discussion in 'Transformers 3rd Party Discussion' started by Transider, Jan 31, 2020.

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  1. Grievlocke

    Grievlocke Omni Armory TFW2005 Supporter

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    Yea, I kinda thought this was a thread to vent our shared frustrations really. Obviously none of us want our toys more than we want people to live, but it can still be frustrating as we are all human.

    I mean, I reeeeeeeally want Iron Factory Heat Death and Primal Commander, but I can wait a little bit...
     
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  2. divinecomedy

    divinecomedy Well-Known Member

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    I feel what is going to happen is:
    1. The Chinese government will force people to go back to work. As such we might get some toys.
    2. After that, it's sort of unclear. In the worst case scenario, restarting production causes the infection to spread, confidence is lost, and people simply refuse to go back to work. Then it will be a toy winter.

    Supposedly, Hasbro intended this coronavirus to infect only 3P, but somehow it got loose ;) 
     
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  3. lilcarus

    lilcarus Well-Known Member

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    now that was pretty fucking funny. well done, sir.[​IMG]
     
  4. Susha

    Susha Well-Known Member

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    well if the WHO is to be believed:
    Coronavirus: World must prepare for pandemic, says WHO

    the picture ahead (imo) will prolly read like so. The influenza will spread, media will ride the train like there's no tomorrow. The economic backslash will unfortunately be the worse part,
    (this in no manner diminishes the human aspect)
    However, the political consequences will be the most long lasting as the Chinese gov. will also ride the train and hardly any other country in the world will be willing (or able) to enforce
    such draconian measures of quarantine.
    The sadest side of all this is that, considering other course of actions (e.g. allowing the disease the spread without making economic countermeasures) would obviously end in a higher cost in
    human lives.

    Of some relief is that Robotoybase has updated their arrivals several times this week. Lets not forget to mention that this is not only good news for us tf collectors and for Robotoybase in specific but
    it also means there has been some return to normality.

    Continuing on this trend of speculation, one of such products was New Age's Pizzeria quartet, a 'new' release somewhat, and this put together with the last news from Weibo New Age (factories closed till after feb)
    this either means that, A) their factories have reopened, or B) they managed to send out an already finished stock.
    In either cases this is encouraging (also from a toy collector perspective not just humanitarian ;) ) as it means that factories have atleast partially returned to activity.

    What specifically regards us is speculation on post 'coronavirus' supply chains as you have already mentioned in this thread, as businesses around the world who mock the 'made in' denomination, according to experts will
    seeks to depend less on chinese supplies, atleast in regards for food. This may affect shipping costs and eventually make our items of desire cost more.

    Moreover, I wonder if our 3P will raise prices of upcoming figure releases as a means to soften the blow. Considering how small the market is, and how its fractured, one must ask if, and how many, 3p companies
    have the resoursces to float past this.


    Having said all the above,
    I, for one, welcome all attempts of keeping the thread as light as possible, even when the humor itself isn't the best. ;) 
    pizza n' prosperity
     
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  5. Hexatron

    Hexatron Plastic crack junky

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    My Wei Jiang Thunder Commander got from Shanghai to Canada in the past 3 days. So either I am lucky or things are getting back on track (postage wise anyways)
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2020
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  6. mtl79

    mtl79 Well-Known Member

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    Ok some just saw some updated stats from South Korea, the country with the second largest breakout outside of China...

    8 deaths out of 833 infections. Now clearly not all of those people have recovered yet. But as it sits, the mortality rate is below 1%. Hopefully everyone else recovers.

    In Italy 6; deaths out of 215 infections, which puts their mortality rate closer to China's... again, not all of those patients are cured yet either...

    Maybe there is some accuracy to China's numbers to date...

    Coronavirus Covid-19 'does not meet the definition of a pandemic'

    The rest of the article has a very bleak outlook... with big ranges being estimated by experts... still a lot of uncertainty, but I think we should look at what's happening in the less censored parts of the World to better understand just how bad this virus is...
     
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  7. divinecomedy

    divinecomedy Well-Known Member

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    This is from a Professor in Rutgers University in the States: Richard H. Ebright (@R_H_Ebright) | Twitter

    "China has performed nearly 200,000 tests. South Korea has performed nearly 28,000 tests. Meanwhile, US--with most expensive, but most dysfunctional, healthcare system on planet--has performed just 414 tests and has little or no capacity to perform more"

    Who needs censors when you have incompetence?
     
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  8. UltraMagnanimus

    UltraMagnanimus The Unknown Member

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    If there are delays that's fine with me, I can wait.
    I still have stuff in unopened boxes from the last big preorder/sale haul so it's always Xmas in my closet! ;) 

    As far as the virus goes I wonder if it will end up being that much worse than the flu?
    The new stations love to freak out about stuff for ratings, but the more people that end up catching it will make the mortality rate go down historically speaking, more in line with a kind of super flu.

    Hopefully that's the path it will take, instead of becoming a zombie apocalypse.:confused: 
     
  9. SunSwipe5

    SunSwipe5 Twin Hellion Masters Of Jet Judo

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    Well, my BM Scorn has made it from China to Chicago.

    My Jinbao Part B for Builder is in infinite limbo at the warehouse it's in. So they told me they will let me know when it becomes available. In the meantime, they put the money I paid for it towards another 3P I had asked about. Apparently, that one is in a warehouse they are able to ship from. o_O 

    All of my Showzee orders/preorders are still chillin' at their warehouse, since those workers are still trying to stay safe and healthy.

    I'm patient, I can wait. Lives are FAR more important than pieces of plastic. :) 
     
  10. Soundwave3k

    Soundwave3k TFW2005 Supporter

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    Realistically, my main concern after the obvious concern for people is what you raised in this paragraph. I do think it’s possible that some 3rd party companies could close down if this gets bad enough, especially if they were already struggling. Speaking to friends from China, small to medium business owners are especially hard hit right now.
     
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  11. divinecomedy

    divinecomedy Well-Known Member

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    Eric Feigl-Ding on Twitter

    "Hawaii@SenBrianSchatz confirmed that CDC is expected only to send #COVID19 test kits in mid-March! That’s like eons in epidemic transmission time. Hawaii is instead asking Japan for test kits instead — kinda embarrassing that we even have to ask another country for their kits."

    ROFL.

    The Chinese now looks super competent. No doubt they've been hiding the true severity, but someone deep within the CCP knows the true score. Not only we don't know the score, we have to borrow a scoreboard from another country.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2020
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  12. General Tekno

    General Tekno Self-Styled #1 Lugnut Fan

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    China's admittedly got a leg up with dealing with a pandemic in that their govt can shut and quarantine the country down to an extent Western nations can't, because of how much control the Party has.

    (I'm not convinced that's a GOOD thing overall but in this specific case it's not a bad thing when it comes to mitigating the spread of infection. A controlling government that's competent about how they go about doing things is very much one well-designed to contain an outbreak like this, and China's govt falls into that category in general.)

    Hopefully things get under control sooner than later, as objectively this is bad for everyone, humanwise, and things can get back to humming along. In the meantime, the delays mean there's also delays in me spending money on 3P toys.

    And the better it's contained, the less the likelihood the US health care system has to deal with it. Best case scenario, we look back on this as something that was seemingly blown out of proportion because we took the proper steps to keep it from becoming an epidemic. Like how with Y2K, the overreaction was a net positive because it caused everyone to pre-emptively resolve the issue, making it look like it was a bunch of unfounded overhype.
     
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  13. edgecrusher

    edgecrusher Pepperidge Farm remembers TFW2005 Supporter

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    Also the test kits are manufactured there. That helps.
     
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  14. 84OptimusPrime

    84OptimusPrime Autobot

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    Received this email this morning at 2:29 am central time 02/25/2020.
    Thank you Show.Z Store!
    Here’s to hoping USA does not quarantine.

    1BA18F38-F185-489B-8DE1-938B75EE8FF6.jpeg
     
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  15. protohuman

    protohuman WTB: Black Fire Convoy & Botcon TM Tigatron

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    Pretty sure the overhype was serious in the US. I could go to any grocerystore at the time and buy some "bogusware."
    Dang I'm a little late to the game otherwise I'd have some test kits made up already.
     
  16. metalwar2010

    metalwar2010 Well-Known Member

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    Ebay:
    It was noted that it depends which distribution is opened to their store. I have a Maketoys figure not being sent (per ShowZ), yet I have two orders, both before and after that one on their way to me already, even on ground in the US.

    So, though this is some good news, I just wouldn't get too excited until you check with the seller, whether an order you already placed or before you place a new one.
     
  17. Trailbreaker77

    Trailbreaker77 Veteran TFW2005 Supporter

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    Ebay:
    I have 3 big orders with 3 different sellers on eBay they have all emailed me separately to ask me to not cancel my order and to please wait for them to ship the items. Kinda on the fence with this, while I'm in no big hurry to get these items in I don't want to be waiting until late March or April to get these items in.
     
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  18. edgecrusher

    edgecrusher Pepperidge Farm remembers TFW2005 Supporter

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    If you can't get them sooner anywhere else, what difference would it make to cancel them?
     
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  19. Trailbreaker77

    Trailbreaker77 Veteran TFW2005 Supporter

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    Ebay:
    I can get them from somewhere else, and it sounds like other have pointed out before small business are feeling the squeeze. Lost revenue due to not being able to deliver products to their customers is an issue.
     
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  20. ATLMYK

    ATLMYK Well-Known Member

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    You dont compare the deaths to total infected. You compare the death to recovered. In cases where the virus ran its full course, recovery or death, the death rate is 9% (27909 recoveries vs 2711 deaths)
    South Korea 11 deaths vs 22 recoveries
    For your example of Italy... 11 deaths 1 recovery

    Coronavirus Update (Live): 80,421 Cases and 2,711 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

    Another Quick fact covid-19 rate of infection is about 2-3x when compared to the common flu.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2020
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