It’s absolutely possible. Speculating isn’t about being right, just being reasonable.

 

It doesn't, but that kind of just further goes to tell how much more into the official merchandise Star Wars fans are. Other than some diorama pieces and custom accessories, I don't think there's a big market for unofficial Star Wars, knockoff or otherwise. Transformers has a massive community for people who are interested in big, expensive pieces from unofficial companies, and I think that might just represent a difference in how much we value Hasbro as a brand versus how much Star Wars fans value Hasbro as a brand.

Of course, there might still just be 8000 Hasbro fans around the globe with $600-$700 to burn and with the strong need for a 2 foot tall Unicron. This is all just speculation on why if this doesn't prove successfuly, what went differently with the Barge.

 

The 5000 min and corresponding percentage for the Barge would be relevant if it tapped out at around 5000. The fact that it hit 8800 backers, with damn near 5000 of those coming in the last 6 days, is more relevant to Unicron. It simply doesn’t matter the percentage to 5000 the Barge had once it surpassed it to the 8800 mark.

The more accurate comparison is the fact that at this point the Barge had 3300 backers, which when calculated against its 8800 total is 37.5%. If Unicron hits its 8000 mark, at this point it’s total is 35% of that, not too far off the Barge’s percentage at this point.

 

It's possible the funding didn't allow for it. This thing hasn't reached funding yet, so it's not like they can just go "with 500 more backers than the original amount, we'll add in a blast effect part!"

 

No, you can't make such a comparison. You are comparing something for which there's a known outcome to something that's not decided yet. I was right in my comparison. 11-12 days out for the barge and 11-12 days out for this. At that point, the outcome for the barge was also still unknown. Also you can't use 8800 because again at that time, the final number was still unknown.

Putting that aside, the barge EXCEEDED its 5000 required number by 3800 (76%). In order for Unicron to pull the same feat, the final number has to be 14080. That's IMPOSSIBLE.

 

This is where we agree. Hasbro could easily add some relatively inexpensive static pieces, like ships or mini characters, to give the illusion of added value. But it seems they are going to ride or die on their initial strategy.

 

No, you are wrong. Your argument is that at 35% funded, at this point, it makes it unlikely to make up the final 65% in the coming time frame, hence your Bill Gates quip. But at this same point the Barge was only at 37.5% of its total backing, and received 62.5% of its total backing in this same time frame, meaning that there is more than enough time at this point to make up 65% of a final total. That successfully disputes your insinuation and reflects that the 5000 min for the Barge is irrelevant to Unicron’s plight.

The known total for the Barge is exactly what’s relevant because we are comparing the percentage to the final total, and using 8,000 as the known final total for Unicron vs 8800 known final total for the Barge.

 

Well, human perception does play a role here for sure. Being at 66% instead of 36% is a big difference. However, the barge does show the potential for large backer numbers in a short period of time. Do I expect 14000 for Unicron? No way. I can see a scramble at the end though. Whether that leads to 8000, we will soon find out.

 

8000 isn't a number that Hasbro pulled out of their hats. In all likelihood, Unicron's tooling costs are significantly greater than the Sail Barge's, way more than the 15% that his price tag might immediately suggest. Probably at least twice as expensive as the Barge. The 8000 minimum is then formulated to subsidize that cost across more buyers, so that the individual price tag isn't thusly double, and putting it well out of the reach of even the most ardent fans.

 

I'm all for speculation but I'd like to remind you guys that the toy is going to be funded or unfunded in under two weeks. While I think discussing the odds of it being funded is interesting, I think arguing technicalities isn't really contributing. Numerically, this thing is pretty close to the Barge based on timing. I think we can agree on that.

However, what is rather worth discussing is whether Unicron will get the 5000-6000 backers necessary in the time it took the Barge to get a similar amount. To this, I would say it's important to keep in mind cost, fandoms involved, and presence of 3rd Party sellers.

The Barge is cheaper and is for a larger fandom with more brand-dedication, so maybe it was easier for it to spike like that. Alternatively, Unicron is being sold by a large number of stores with unrecorded sales, so for all we know this thing is at 20,000 backers (I'm joking, but the point stands; we don't know).

 

Nope. You said "known final total for Unicron". No, how would you know that? That's the required minimum, not the final total. The known final total for Unicron will only be known 11 days from now. And it might be exactly 8000 but it could be more or less. Same with the barge. The minimum required was 5000. How would you known in advance how many would be ordered in the end? Had you known that 8800 would be the final total, there wouldn't be any worry in the first place when it came to the barge right? You are confusing two concepts. The minimum number is set, but the final total would only be known at the end.

 

No offense, but other than perception of percentages, does any of this matter at all?

 

I was just stating a fact. Whether it's good, bad or even matters is up to individuals. In the end, this is a test of the fandom. I can spout all kinds of numbers here, but in the end if there's enough fans, this will get made, otherwise it won't.

 

It just seemed like an argument over a technicality that didn't really contribute much to the argument it stemmed from, so I wanted to make sure that was at least clear.

 

It's not an argument. It's just simple fact that some people failed to understand. "The minimum number is set, but the final total would only be known at the end."
All I was saying is the future is unknown. Anyway, not sure why you are so concerned. I am not calling anyone names or anything like that.

 

If you've been following this thread long enough, you'd be amazed how quickly disagreements have spiraled into short wars.

 

I dunno if it's that as much Hasbro just not caring about the 3P market beyond getting free market research.

 

It's possible, but I think the strength of that market versus the lack of a Star Wars equivalent indicates Star Wars fans who buy toys probably think less about what company they're buying from, since there are so few options. I'd love to see a small scale study on this, it'd be interesting.

 

Man this thing is cool. If I was going all in on Siege this would make for a hell of a display centerpiece. I chewed if over, but I honestly don't have the space to accommodate the toy. Envious and happy for the collectors who get to though!

 

Since there is no indication of Hasbro opening this to Europeans, I finally preordered from a retailer.