The sequels are being filmed back to back for cost effectiveness which in a way spells trouble at the studio.

Factoring in a large sum came from China, which keeps 2/3 of the box office from a foreign film, leaves very slim pickings indeed before residuals come out of contracts. A large part of TLK having a not so splendid return was due to China ironically and Mark Wahlberg who take percentages of the box office.

 

Nani?

Those must cost more altogether. Two big budget movies.

 

No shit paramount is in deep trouble
I think everyone knows this

 

It really depends on a lot of background deals, so my estimates are only surface level. We will really know once we get some info on the next project in the franchise. If Bumblebee is a moderate success we will see a continuation. If something didn't work the next project will be a soft reboot/change of direction.

If Bumblebee finishes with something between 400-450M worldwide, then, depending on the production budget, we're looking at 142.5-192.5M with 55% to 75% return (on PB: 103M) and 62.5-112.5M with 19% to 33% (on PB: 135M). Technically, Bumblebee shouldn't sink, but if we can call it a success really depends on its production budget. I think we can expect a ROTF to DOTM type of change in the next installment at least.

 

It's even harder to calculate due to the fact that the numbers being released aren't the actual figures, but simply ballpark numbers the studios are reporting. Costs often balloon far past the "reported" budgets, as reshoots, etc. add additional costs which are rarely ever disclosed outside of insider leaks. To say nothing about the undisclosed marketing costs.

Using Return on Investment calculations to measure % of profitability works best for comparing investment portfolios (or in this case, IPs) alongside performance data, which you have done here, but they are hardly reliable due to regional cuts/fees/charges/taxes, in addition to a number of other factors.

Still, I think your predictions are substantiated based on the existing data and I generally agree.

 

Like I've said before, I think the domestic haul will be the best indicator of what the next film's approach will be. But based on the current numbers, I think we're both on the same page with belief that we're getting a reboot, soft or otherwise.

 

Yeah, I think that Bumblebee ends up being a small/moderate success, which won't increase the budget for the next movie. So I think we're looking once more on something between 100-150M production budget. Paramount has two options: return to the model that worked or a hard reboot. In the situation where you don't really have money to spare and have no certainty that it will be a hit, going with a hard reboot with such budget is off the table. At least in the next few years or until Paramount will have the money. It's more likely we will see the return to the first trilogy, but with changes introduced by Bumblebee. I think we may be looking to a retelling of Transformers with Bumblebee elements in the near future.

 

Wow! The IMAX-theatre in Oslo, Norway cancelled Bumblebee and viewed Bohemian Rapsody instead, due to few audiences.   The article says that three people drove from Jessheim to Oslo to watch Bumblebee, only to find out that the movie was cancelled and that Bohemian Rapsody was put up instead...

 

Good article on Paramount's challenges:

Paramount Was Hollywood’s ‘Mountain.’ Now It’s a Molehill.

The good news is that things were much better in FY 18 than in 16/17, and 19 is off to a decent start. The slate is a bit light for FY19, but 20/21/22 looks potentially rock solid with Top Gun and back to back MIs as tent poles.

I have a feeling more Bumblebee-esque films are strongly possible at this point. Otherwise, they'll go the reboot route like they are doing with TMNT. It won't lie dormant; studios like potential money too much (see - Ghostbusters, TMNT, etc).

 

Funny that the studio basically gave up on Bumblebee ... left it in the cross hairs of so many other movies like aquaman.... and didnt even get it an imax release in the majority of areas......

And yet here the movie is making a profit....

 

Finally some good news in terms of box office for Bumblebee. I thought the news against it was heavily biased. I think they favored Disney by giving so much good coverage to Mary Poppins. The funny thing is that Bumblebee will be a bigger success than Poppins. Both have around $130M budgets, but Bumblebee will make more than $100M than Poppins.

 

I bet they are beating themselves up for not pushing it to a january release...... if they did that and got it in imax... the movie would have 500 million and 150 million domestic already. possibly even more than that

 

Bee's always been a scrapper.

 

Box Office: 'Aquaman' Ruled Christmas, But 'Mary Poppins,' 'Bumblebee' And 'Spider-Man' Thrived

 

Hold up....so Bumblebee is making more than Spiderman:Spiderverse and Mary Poppins, but yet it's being looked upon like a red-headed step child????? Yeah, this isn't the money making machine that it used to be. But is isn't the financial black hole that many on this site are making it out to be. It's akin to the Ant-Man of the MCU and that's what it was intended to be like. Hopefully, like Ant-Man, it becomes part of a bigger conglomerate of movies.

 

Internationally, yes. Bumblebee's 70-100M ahead of Spider-Man and Mary Poppins, but he's behind them stateside. Some people say that the most important figures are the domestic ones, because they have the highest return. It's the same situation as was with AOE, where it had over 1B internationally, but people still said it wasn't success, because domestically it only had 240M.

 

They can say what they want. The bank doesn't care.

 

Sad news, Bee is officially out of the theatres in the biggest theatre chain here.

 

After how many weeks?

 

This is the 4th-5th week