We can do this our little friend can do it

 

That's a good point! A good marketing pitch might carry the movie. (Avatar was promoted as the ultimate 3D experiance and look how it turned out.) But, on the other hand, there's also a risk that war might be considered a too hard subject for children. Recently, Mowgli had that problem, where concerned parents deemed it too dark for their kids. If an animated Transformers movie will be considered inappriopriate for children it might impact box office and toys sales. I feel like it's a no-win situation.

 

Even if it doesn't reach 400M by this month (which I think it should do). When it gets released in Japan it will probably earn 15/20M pushing it over 400M.
I guess 410-430M is where it will end. Hope something happens to push it over 450M  

 

This movie has the touch and the power!

 

Come on Bumblebee you can do it!!!!

 

And now all we need is a little energon and a lot of luck.

 

Also good to note that Japan is still ages away.

 

Just crunching the numbers, I think $450-$475m is more likely.

 

I would say satisfactory, not impressive. There are several other films we could compare it to with similar circumstances that far exceeded Bumblebee's box office performance. It, for example. That's impressive. But impressive is subjective.

I understand the point you're trying to make though. The film is profitable (which TLK wasn't), but that still doesn't address the IP's current-universe viability. Paramount, like all movie studios, wants to make TONS of money, not just minimal profit. Remember, the producers have already openly discussed the topic of whether or not this film will A) reinvigorate the existing franchise or B) reboot it. There's also the steady decline of the franchise as a whole. Just staying in the black isn't enough. Studios are in the business for increasing their profits w/each investment/installment. You also have to look at the films' major box office success as a whole and the indicators behind why there's been such a steady decline (and a major drop w/TLK). Even if they make cheaper and cheaper films, while these films might make a profit compared to the expenses, the franchise as a whole is making less and less. In any other market, that's the sign of a business on its way out. Bumblebee needed to make a solid dent in the box office to restore confidence in the brand. I'm not sure this is the dent it needs to offset a reboot. We'll have to see.

Like I said before, I think the real indicator is in the domestic take. That's how I and others were able to accurately predict TLK's major drop in box office. People said I was crazy because Paramount put together a story group after Age of Extinction's success and how much money the Chinese market brought it. But I knew that China wasn't a factor that could be 100% counted on going forward (that's another discussion altogether). Like then, I also believe it will determine (and in some cases already has) whether or not Bumblebee will be the start of a new trend in Transformers films, i.e. smaller scale films, or a full-on reboot.

As far as the domestic numbers, Bumblebee's stalled out quite a bit as of last week. We'll have to see if it can match or even beat the last film's take. IMO, this will be the indicator to watch.

However, despite my attention towards domestic take and declining franchise sales, I'm not discounting overall profitability. Bumblebee has made around $365m worldwide and I think it can reach and exceed $400m. Anything above $400m is good news. And I think, ultimately, that number will determine how big (or small) Transformers films are in the future.

 

Japan will be pirating this movie

 

I 100% agree with this assessment.

 

In terms of marketing aquaman was aggressive becos it had plenty of goods to show and a truck load of different set pieces. They literally showed you a 5 minute action trailer and still left heaps of action unspoiled
Bumblebee on the other hand doesn’t have a lot of action and If bumblebee showed anymore they would have shown all the action sequences...they had no choice but be humble

 

I'm guessing Bumblebee will end it's theatrical run on around 400-450M then

 

Wait are you saying there was an iron man movie before marvel studios one!?

 

Did you like Aquaman? My friend and I haven't seen it yet, but plan on it. They still had IMAX showings last week; hopefully they'll have some this week.

 

It was good heaps of fun...it’s easy to see why this movie pushed dc into a billion while bvs didn’t. People want colourful escapist fun

 

I suspect they're referring to the fact that Marvel Studios rebooted their Marvel cinematic franchise w/Iron Man, ignoring the previous Marvel Studios films licensed through through Fox, Sony, Paramount, etc. which included Blade, the Spider-Man films, X-Men films, Ang Lee Hulk film, etc. making Iron Man the first film in the current Marvel Cinematic Universe after the purchase of Marvel Studios by Disney (although Iron Man was developed by Marvel Studios before the Disney purchase).

 

Even if it doesn't reach 400 mil, 360-390 is still a boatload of cash for what was put into it in comparison to the shovels of cash used in the last five movies for the pointless marketing and pyrotechnics.