That's a shame

 

It doesn't matter to Paramount's bottom line for this movie, but that's a short term thought. It definitely matters to the long term "what decisions Paramount makes regarding the future of the franchise."

 

So I did a little digging and threw up a post or 8 on the Moonbase 2 twitter, mostly to satisfy my own curiosity. I'm copy pasting it here, so excuse the hashtags.

#Bumblebee opened in 3550 cinemas, #theLastKnight opened in 4069, So BB opened in 519 less cinemas. BB's takings the first week was $46,278,020. TLK, in the same period was $23,795,489. So week 1, BB made 195% MORE than TLK. Percinema, BB made $6070 and TLK made $5848. This means per theatre #Bumblebee earned 4% more than #TheLastKnight week 1. The first weekend gross for BB is $20,906,146, a drop of 3.5%, while for TLK it was $16,880,555, a drop of about 62%. Going forward is when it gets more complicated. Currently, #Bumblebee's week 2 total is a minimum of $35,418,083, a drop of 23%. In the same period, #TheLastKnight experienced it's biggest week at $61,307,862, growth of 158%. While that's pretty impressive, it's number of cinemas increase the next week and for week 3 they've dropped to about $27 million and after this it's domestic earnings plummeted. Not only that, but including the massive jump, #TheLastKnight earned about $85 million in it's first fortnight. #Bumblebee earned near $82 million in the same time, so there's very little in the difference. #TheLastKnight had earned most of its money in week 3, with a 55% drop off. It's US domestic total was $130 million, less than half of AOE and a third of DOTM. Assuming there's not a significant rise or fall, #Bumblebee could have a Week 3 drop of...lets guesstimate 35% This would mean #Bumblebee in week 3 might take $23 million dollars, bringing it to about $105. Assume the drop off for week 4 will be at least 50%, and the most you'd take is $11 million. This would bring it to $126 million. Almost as much as #TheLastKnight, without the sharp fall and bad start. Typically TF movies make between 22 and 30% of their earnings domestically (in #TheLastKnight's case it was 22%). So you could project that by march, once the final curtain drops #Bumblebee will have taken between $420 and $572 million. Still much less than what you'd see from the other TF flicks, but minimum within the same range as #TheLastKnight and comfortably in the likely range for the time of release, bar Star Wars infused madness. Either way, it's very likely to make 4 or 5 times its budget. Unlike the #TheLastKnight which barely tripled it and had waaaay more advertising. Apart from educating myself alittle on box office takes, I guess the reveal here is it's very likely #Bumblebee will be a financial success if not a behemoth and we can hope execs see it as a sound if not insane money making standard.

The sky...is not falling.

Probably

 

I hope that Paramount keeps going with the direction of Bumblebee. It was actually a pretty good film.

 

Yup, I doubt they'll be able to do this again. Hopefully, they realize what needs to done ensure a better box office in the future (not releasing the film with two other large films, adding space between the releases, etc).

 

As I said previous page...40m China debut....not 60 or 70 as reported last few weeks. I also don’t foresee WOM as too good over there

 

How do you know if japan just doesn’t pirate it by the time march 22 rolls around

 

More specifically, I was thinking about the answer to the Reboot/Prequel debate. If this movie was an unquestionable hit, I have no doubt it would be counted as a Reboot and we'd get that Optimus Movie and Bumblebee 2, etc. using this movie as a starting point.

As-is, it's looking more and more like it's going to be placed squarely into the Prequel box so they can wipe the slate clean and make an even rebootier-reboot in a couple of years.

 

Money-wise, I honestly don't think whether the movie is a prequel or a reboot affects what the general audience thinks. If they do end up rebooting cleanly, they would have to face the same exact hardships as they would if they were to just reboot with Bumblebee. I personally think it's a waste to reboot cleanly since Bumblebee had already done so. A clean reboot would imply we would need to redo the whole leaving Cybertron thing, redo the arrival to Autobots, redo humans reacting to seeing a Transformer for the first time, and redo the whole military just discovered aliens exist thing. It would be a rehash of the first film and Bumblebee, and I don't think the GA wants to see that again for the third time. They need to wait a few years and just continue off of where Bumblebee left off with the reboot angle.

 

Yeah, I guess I was right about your prediction being overly optimistic. I'm currently thinking high 3 to low 4 from what I'm seeing, which seems to match up with what you're thinking too.

 

Disappointed news about China, but I hope Paramount at least will continue with the animated movie. After that, they can put the franchise in hiatus in a couple of years.

 

I'm starting to want Hasbro to sell the franchise, and others, to Disney.
This may be unpopular, but let Disney reboot Transformers Marvel movie style.

Bright, bombastic, fun. Not trying to be "Uber cool" Bay style nonsense that only really appeals to a limited demographic.
Go for wider appeal.
Make ALL the hero characters unique and recognizable, both in looks and personality, while still honoring the characters classic looks. Don't just rely on one or two main heroes and expect the others to be background fodder that go nowhere. Infinity War, Civil War and GotG manage to give every heroic character their time to shine and a chance to show personality.
Make the villains enjoyable. I know Marvel still struggles with their villains, but they do a hell of a lot better than the TF films have to make the villains at least somewhat engaging. Make villains more than just growling meanie or stoic meanie.

I think the GA has moved on from gritty or macho 'cool' that the Bay films were. The Marvel films make big money because the formula works.
Give the franchise to Disney and let them do it to Transformers.

 

Uh...isn't this exactly what the Bumblebee movie did?

 

You

You just had that.

 

I agree, just prequel the prequel

 

Let’s hope it’s one of those rare US films that makes a 4x multiplier in China. That would keep $500m alive!

 

I don't want the mouse near Transformers.

 

Sad news about China..

Soundwave, play "The Touch" by Stan Bush

 

No I dont want that damn mouse touching the brand ever