I'll throw in with you on that estimate of 400 million. ^_^

But I don't think Paramount would be too happy with those numbers. If the film doesn't break 500 million, or if the domestic take is smaller than the first film (which I don't think will happen), I wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing reboot or a Michael Bay return (Primus forbid). Transformers used to be a box-office assassin. With Paramount suffering major financial losses as of late, they need a big money-making franchise back on the books.

Thoughts?

 

I doubt Paramount will bring Bay back. If BB fails, he also shares the blames. Because what's he done with these movies over the years, that has left a long sour taste for audience. So if Paramount wanna go bankrupt, sure bring Bay back.

 

He probably overreacted with his response, but honestly, he was provoked and this all started because someone took a perfectly innocent comment the wrong way.

I present the quote that somehow started it all...

This bolded portion is what somehow started this... an innocent personal opinion directed toward no one in particular. Someone flipped out and took it as a personal attack on how they deal with grief, and amassed several sympathy likes for some reason.

I get that we all collect and play with toys, but I would still expect grown people to react with more maturity toward others who express differing opinions in a completely nonthreatening way.

 

I took offense (and gained "sympathy likes") because that is what Charlie is struggling with through out the film. Grief. She lost her father as well as herself. She struggled with the grief, especially with her family moving on without her which isolated her even more, until Bumblebee showed up and helped her overcome her grief as well as reminding her who she really is.
The fact that this user equated that to mere "teen angst" is a huge middle finger to, not only what the movie tried to illustrate, but to anyone who has lost a loved one and has struggled the same way.
You can try and defend the user all you want, but that's what he posted. "Innocent" my arse.
Now can we please let it go and go back to the subject at hand?

 

Today is a big day concerning what kind of drop off we can expect for BB. Typically most holiday movies fall big on the second of Jan provided it’s not on a weekend. After BB monster day yesterday I’m predicting a respectable $3m Wednesday gross. Anything over that and there’s a good chance we cross $100m on Saturday instead of Sunday and could be in for another incredibly small weekend to weekend drop in the single digit percentiles. When looking at foreign grosses remember that they don’t all report as quickly as USA does so sometimes the total lags. Foreign take not counting China is outpacing domestic by about 25%. I’m really believing this film has a chance to hit $500m if it is recieved well in china.

 

I mean....I guess? Don't get me wrong, I'm not the biggest fan of the Bayverse designs myself. But I don't think people really cared much? People still shoveled money hand over fist to the first three movies. AoE still made money in China. TLK tanked more because of Bayverse and bad movie fatigue more than designs.

I mean...maybe? Most people I know who aren't even Transformers fans never seemed to care what Bumblebee was. To them it was just another Transformers movie from Paramount, one that just happened to be a hell of a lot better than the 5 films before it. I know I'm not speaking for everyone but it would seem that box office numbers seem to suggest that the general movie going populace couldn't care less about the designs.

 

China box office isn’t a guarantee
If you know Chinese audience taste they want insane amounts of action; this is way aquaman is doing awesomely and aoe was massively successful but tlk failed
I saw aoe in Shanghai in 2014 and the audience exiting the movie all said the movie was really satisfying
From what I heard the tlk action scenes were seen as much weaker and lacking optimus prime
Right now the tracking for bee is actually getting behind mi6; now geared to be debuting to 40 mil instead of 70.
And who know the world of mouth is gonna be in chia...
Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Gewara etc)

 

When will we know about the weekend numbers?

I will say this much more positive word of mouth is going around social media for this movie, so that is a plus.

 

I think regardless what the final numbers of BB will be, I believe strongly Paramount will do another shake up in their company.

 

I thought they already did. Plus, A Quiet Place was a huge hit (that already has a sequel in development) so I doubt there will be a shake up.

 

I wonder if there is something about color in general that makes people more likely or less likely to watch a movie. The Zack Snyder Superman movie bleached out color and people really didn't seem happy with the film. Aquaman went kind of crazy with the color in some spots and people seem happier. Even with the MCU it seems like Marvel/Disney has been attempting to be more bold with color than they were in the early movies.

Maybe it's because when stores are pushing their HD TVs and 4K TVs they tend to use things with all sorts of bold bright colors. The selling point seems to be less of can you notice the slightly sharper details and more of look at all that color. When you can get the latest and greatest color at home on your TV perhaps it's a step backward to go to the movie theater to watch something not using the sort of color you are used to at home.

That and when you think about the demographics of people who are going to the movies it's more and more people who grew up on the short cut of color coded heroes. Most of the young people going to movies today grew up on things like the Power Rangers all having a different colored costume or anime where characters have different colored hair.

 

A shake up with the people involved in the Transformers live-action, not the whole Paramount movie division.

 

Your prediction was accurate. Bumblebee grossed an estimated $3.07M on Wednesday. Total gross stands at $81.69M.

It should be about to hit $100M by Sunday.

Source: BoxOfficeReport.com on Twitter

 

Good, I keep pushing it on social media. Can we push for 200 million?

 

It opens in China tomorrow. That'll give it a significant boost.

 

I'm no Red Goblin but I thought heck why not? It's a fun idea

Edit: apparently the promotion already did this 2 weeks ago so it's not an original idea. Sorry guys

 

This is disappointing as just a week ago it was tracking to do much more than that. Chinese audience so hard to predict though. I still think it makes it $400m. A $40m opening in China will probably get close to $100m total and Japan will add a nice chunk in a few months. US gross will end around $135m with other foreign markets around $180-$200m. $400 is very reachable. $450 not out of the realm either.

 

Remember, the China gross won't really matter profit-wise as they'll be getting a flat $60M from the China deal anyways.

 

Not too shabby if it did as well on midnight showings in China as TF3 as the total Chinese box office numbers for TF3 wound up being over $165 mil. Not suggesting that Bumblebee will reach that total but history might repeat.