The Box Office Competition

Harry Potter and The Simpsons are also coming out next July, on the 13th and 27th respectively. Both properties vastly dwarf the name recognition and popularity of Transformers. What impact will these other films have on the success of the Transformers film? I think it will be a lot, and Transformers had better have one hell of an opening weekend to not be gone in a month's time.

I'll try to be optimistic and hope that the TF movie does well at the box office similar to when the first Spiderman movie appeared, simply because it'll be the first time that it hits the big screen. Or at least rake in enough to surpass its budget within a week to 10 days. But frankly, I think the competition will definitely be rough with a gazillion Potter and Simpson fans. Plus, isn't it a pattern now, that summer movies don't usually last long after placing first for a certain weekend?

One thing that may be noteworthy on those two movies you bring up, is that they're both from franchises that are nearing the twilight of their appeal - The Simpsons has been around forever, and lately has not been as successful because people get the perception that it has run out of entertaining and fresh material. Harry Potter, while it is more successful historically, has been seeing some trouble with the child stars growing out of their roles and incorporating darker, more mature themes into the story that may turn off younger viewers.

I don't doubt that Potter will still be overwhelmingly successful, but it's not going to be as big a phenomenon as, say, Pirates of the Caribbean 2. Simpsons seems like shark-jumping to me.

They'll be competition, stiff even, but I don't see them as juggernauts that will completely smack the TF movie out of peoples' minds.

Harry Potter will smoke transformers once it comes out.

I think the best they can hope for is for Transformers to open at #1, got to #2 the following week and #3 the week after. As long as it degrades like that I think the movie will do fine, it’s become more and more rare for a movie to go into week two holding the #1 spot in the summer these days. They could have problems if it goes from 1 to 3 not only falling to the next “big movie” but slipping under something that came out before it.

or, even worse, come in at #2 the first week

its sad but true isnt it. Transformers needs to come out when nothing else spectacular is coming

There's a whole slew of movies coming out next summer that could potentially dwarf "Transformers" box office wise, not to mention quality wise, the way things are shaping up.

I mean seriously, nobody actually expects this movie to hold tough against a Harry Potter, or a Pirates movie... do they?

This has been a longstanding debate at the Allspark, and this is a debate we can go around and around about but really can't know much about this until next July.

I DO think fosterlager is forgetting two far bigger movies coming out before TF: Spider-Man 3 and Pirates 3, both of which have HUGELY successful films before them, moreso than Potter. And then Fantastic 4 II is coming out a week earlier.

I really do think TF will do well, while Pirates 3 and SM3 are "bigger films", they are still sequels, whereas Transformers (if marketed well) is a largely "fresh" idea.

I mean c'mon, what kid would NOT go to see a movie about giant transforming robots?

Originally Posted by Grimlock 13 I'm not going to shell out import fees just because a toy is missing a blob of paint on its ass.

Pirates 2 made far more money that the first one did... I believe it's now the number two box office grosser of all time after Titanic. There's every reason to believe that number 3 will dwarf the competition... even Spiderman could suffer.

Transformers at least has the benefit of coming out 2 months after those two Juggernauts, but it will get clobbered when Harry Potter comes out, that's a given.