I've more or less limited my being to FP, MT, MMC, some UT stuff, and some Warbottron. If I can find other stuff that looks fancy I'll grab it(Like some TW stuff). But there is a lot of product out there and it is hard to get.

 

As some people have mentioned, I think the market will continue to grow for a couple more years and then hit a tipping point. Some attrition will occur and we'll lose some third-party companies. But there are only two ways I can see the third-party market dying out:

1. HasTak somehow manages to somehow prevent major online retailers from selling product. I think a lot of what has allowed the market to grow is that companies can sell high enough volumes of product to support the kinds of development and designs we're seeing now. If that avenue of sales dropped off, I think a lot of companies would have to return to a more "garage kit" approach and there would be a lot less money to be made as kits would, by necessity, be smaller and less intricate.
2. HasTak stops creating new media/characters. Unless HasTak stops creating new characters, new designs, new timelines (Hearts of Steel, etc), there's never going to be an end to what third-party companies can do. Because of the realities of big box retail, toy safety, etc. HasTak is never going to be able to consistently create toys based on all of their media, let alone toys that match what we as collectors want. HasTak will always have to make some trade off (size, articulation, paint, etc) that a third-party company can capitalize on.

Sure, there is a finite number of top-tier characters in the fiction, but all it takes is one awesome portrayal to change that. Who would have thought before 2012 that Swerve would have been a hugely popular character? Or Rewind? Or Tailgate?

All of this doesn't even take into account that some of these companies are already starting to build out their own characters and story lines...

Will it continue to grow as quickly as it is now? Probably not, but I think as long as enough of us are unsatisfied with official toys, the third-party market will continue chugging right along.

 

Yeah, I was one of the few who thought the market might burst this year, but no, the amount of money out there is just outstanding.

 

I'll put my hand up and say I'm one of those people that believe the Third Party scene is gonna implode soon. But the thing is, I haven't taken into consideration the Third Party sales in China. If China accounts for the vast majority of 3P sales then I can see the market expanding some more... and going by Hasbro Asias product I'd surmise this is probably the case.

 

You all can thank me; I'm solely responsible for keep the market going. My pockets aren't deep, they're endless : )










(j/p)

 

than buy me a utopia hahaha

 

I think it's saturated. We've just deluded ourselves by constantly chasing exclusives and every next toy bumps up the price bracket of what we get. We're going to start looking back and realise all this shit we bought can't be sold back to anyone and that's all it will take. Right now it's like all creative publishing, books, music and movies where everyone has gone indy. Reminds me of the comics boom in the 90's when independents got real big, and every comic had variant coverways.

Not only that, but there are so many collectibles getting inflated by that perceived value on ebay, we have to decide which one piece Sideshow Raynor, Hot Toys Robocop, Maketoys Utopia or, um that Lobo Statue we want. Oh yeah, book collections are hip and Star Wars is back, new and on going now.

The most popular stuff is currently the 80's and that's also the generation in their prime to afford these high priced goods (and the time toys really diversified). What was 90's? Prolly video games.

 

This is a great point.---^ Sure, once you've mined G1 other than repeating previously released figures you definitely hit a wall. But as Planet X (as just one example) is proving by going after the FOC Dinobot designs, there are layers and depth to the roster of characters and versions of those characters that can be made before anything truly dries up. The market may trim itself of redundant companies through a state of natural attrition, but this is rarely a bad thing and happens in all industries on a daily basis.

 

The day that there are three or more companies doing figures of the Triumverate - Transformers Wiki then I'll say that the market has been oversaturarated...

 

Great topic, with some excellent posts.

Count me in as someone who thinks that, once G1 has been mined dry, interest will start to wane. Yes, IDW, Armada, Battle Beasts etc. have their fans, but are they numerous enough to support a 3rd party market once G1's been done?

In the 80s, the Transformers brand was all-pervasive. Millions tuned into the cartoon show worldwide, and issues of the comics sold in the hundreds of thousands (in the UK alone). Whilst Beast Wars and other iterations have been popular in their own way, I can't see that they have a large enough fan base to support the market as it presently stands.

Maybe in 20 years' time when today's generation of Bayformers fans grow up...

Another point to note is that Transformers fans, as a collective, are getting older. Yes, you get fans of all ages on these boads, but I'm guessing the vast majority of us are in our thirties. I recently went to my first TF convention (Auto Assembly), and whilst there were a few outliers, I'd suggest 90% of attendees were also roughly my age.

I know it's not true for everyone, but I'm at the age where I'm just about to settle down, start having kids, I have a mortgage and other responsibilities. As my family grows, I have less time and money to spend on Transformers.

As this core demographic ages, disposable income goes down, we re-prioritise. A few years ago I was buying every MP variant going - now I'm seriously debating on whether to get Star Sabre at all.

I suppose my point is, the bulk of us are getting on a bit, and the next generation - coming in to replace us - isn't half as numerous. You go to a Doctor Who convention and you see all ages. I fully expect to go to Auto Assembly in 2024 and everyone will be forty-something with only a few outside that bracket.

So yeah, Transformers has an ageing fanbase that might not be able to support this level of product going into the future.

Sweeping generalisations, I know, and of course it's possible I'm talking rubbish, but that's just how I see things.

 

I think our *wants* are on a growth trend, but I worry our spending is going to overwhelm some of us before long.

I did some quick research and number crunching, and from my tally it was very easy for an avid 3p collector to have spent around $5400 usd on 3p figures alone over the past year or so.

- 53 major figure releases, including 5 sets of more then 1 figure
- Average per-figure cost of $95 usd (sets were divided up to calculate averages)

If next year climbs to 75 major releases and an average per-figure price of $105 each, which it looks like they well could, we're looking at $7800 to keep up.

So the answer of course, for most of us, is to not keep up and rather pick and choose. This can be tough when stock is limited and some figures go all Quakewave prices if you miss them, so we operate sandwiched between "don't want to miss it" and "oh lord my wallet". Plus there's the "keeping up with the jones's" of these forums: its hard to resist a figure when everyone is freaking out over it.

The bubble of spending happens to each person individually: loosen your grip on your wallet too much and get into financial trouble and you may back off completely, swearing off everything for a good long while.

It's going to be interesting to see how many of us can walk the line between mountains of "ooooon I want that!" and $5-7k per year out the door.


----

Since someone is bound to ask, when I crunched the numbers above, here were my assumptions:
- Assumed said collector chose one of Ares or FeralRex, one set CHUG scale dinos, 1 set MP scale dinos
- Assumed very few repaints or re-releases, other than popular ones like black Orion
- Assumed said collector bought 1 of multi-releases of a single mold (Azelea, Barbossa, etc) except for certain sets or remolds (so they bought a set of the 3 iGear seekers, both Brawny and Backland, etc)
- Assumed they chose one of a character when 2 companies produced it
- Assumed the FP Stunticons cars and 2-3 not-Predaking limbs were bought previously (so are not included)
- Did NOT include ANY upgrade sets, these are figures ONLY
- Assumed money set aside for a couple "any day now" releases (next 30 days) but otherwise did NOT include any pre-orders for upcoming figs
- Did not include any shipping costs
- Prices are from major online USA retailers, no taxes added.

 

You bring up a lot of interesting ideas here.

So what I will do is risk the bows and arrows (which will no doubt come) and say something very simple.

It's obvious that these toys are marked up a SHIT LOAD. Hence a company can fail on a release or more and still make enough money to continue building more toys.

There is enough of a markup on these items, like you say, to keep small retailers who solely focus on 3rd Party in Business. Forget about BBTS, BBTS does the price fixing and sets the standard price. But all in all, they are huge, so 3rd Party is not keeping the lights on.

The other factor is that we as fans are numb to the price points of these toys. The terms "pay to play" and "shut up and take my money" is so part of our lexicon, that there is no need for these companies to charge a lesser price.

The proof is in the Legends figures that were recently released. They literally dropped the price by 50%, because the fandom had said, enough is enough.

The problem is, the fandom does find a $125 Voyager figure a reasonable price. So nothing will change.

Now for the fandom itself. Most of the 3rd Party Fandom is between 30-40 years old. This is the prime time making money time for the Fandom. Hasbro and TT don't do a very good job offering us high priced toys like some other companies do.

So the 3rd Party niche is the Hot Toys for transformers collectors. And they are marketing to an audience who "are a bunch of grown up kids" with a high disposable income.

So putting these together. The bubble will burst on 3rd Party when:
- Hasbro / TT starts suing these companies or tries to shut them down.
- The fandom itself decides that the prices dictated are too high, and the profit margins begin to decrease, forcing failing companies out of the game. As there won't be a profit to get.
- The fandom gets to an age where they no longer want to buy Transforming toys.

So to me, we have only begun to see the potential of 3rd Parties. The only thing that can ever stop it is Hasbro / TT.

The fandom will never stop doing what its doing.

 

i dont know about a 'bubble', but fans have finite money. that means the current number of 'fans' can only support so much product (equated in $) without either increasing the fanbase or its disposable income.
but, since none of us work at goldman sachs and are qualified to grade relative market weight, competition, earnings projections,... etc., seems like a moot discussion point since we dont know any of the variables.
now that i think about it, if these companies had stock youd know all that stuff .

anyway, i just know i like having mad choices, and my detolfs are getting mad full, and im crazy happy that shit. imma enjoy it while i can, and leave this theoretical maybe what if shit to you academics.  

 

But there are certain market conditions that you can make general sweeping comments on:

- Most 3rd Party Collectors are most likely in their 30s to early 40s
- An average American makes their highest salaries in their 30s to early 40s
- With a higher salary, comes a higher dispensable income

Put those together, and you have a perfect market condition. Where $100 toy purchases are the norm.

Some people have $10,000 to spend on TFs due to their dispensable income at this age bracket. Even $1,00 is huge, but people blink an eye to it.

 

Some good points have been made. Everyone is in speculation mode. Fact, there is money to be made. These companies see the opportunity to make some money and jump on it. Oversaturation is a word I see a lot. And I don't agree with that. It isn't over saturated at all. Competition brings out the best and gives customers a choice. It provides me with the opportunity to buy what I want and what I consider the best value for my money.

Which is why I don't believe that 3P companies will run out of figures to make. Example, Optimus Prime and other characters that are popular in the Transformers Franchise. Their can be 10 companies out their making MP stylized versions of them and I beleive they can still profit. The collecting world is weird and crazy. You have collectors that collect nothing but one character. You have people that only buys G1 style toys. One advices I've always given to noobs when it comes to collecting is never backtrack. After market price usually suck (unless you buy TFC)and why buy engineering from years ago when better things are always being made. You see, we can't run out of characters to make when a company can make a better MP Optimus. And that Optimus will then be made better by yet another company.

IN the pass, I brought into the whole 3P bubble will burst and though that the competition is bad. Cause I too though that there are a set number of collectors out there. But this kind of thinking is wrong. Will never know how many collectors there are out there and can never predict what the market is like. All I know is I collect Transformers toys. I don't go out and buy all these 3P toys. I am extremely selective for my reasons. I buy 3P Transformers because they make what I am looking for. I collect what I feel is collectors grade or worthy of collecting. Sometime regular toys gets in but most times expensive 3P is the way to go and what I want.

 

All I know is that I am winding up my collection for a while. I still think the bubble will burst very badly (not due to fans getting tired), and there will be time to bottom fish at super cheap prices. If that does not happen, it's fine as well. I have quite a few hobby that I like better than this  

 

I enjoy the Spring Cleaning/clearance sales that places like BBTS and TFSource end up putting on - helps me grab stuff I wasn't able to throughout the year. Looking forward to when they update/post the next one.

 

Indeed there is money to be made.
And TF fans have wants. Very serious wants.
And these people have money.
The 3rd party companies I suspect are mostly fans too, and we all want certain things.
Luckily there are different scales, styles, etc so there's lots and lots of different wants.
But what happens when we HAVE the things we want? Money is finite, yes, and space is finite and actually, characters are finite.
TF has a TON of characters, but once we really get what we want, what then?

I bet that #1, the really good 3rd party companies will survive, while other smaller ones won't and
#2, years from now we'll each of us be saturated, and the golden age will be over not from lack of product, but lack of demand.

 

I think the most interesting thing in 3rd Parties is MT and FP really trying to take things in their own direction by making some non Hasbro characters and MT toys is really building a consistent look and compatibility across their line. Of course they did just tease the IDW tailgate but I think they have the best chance of launch their own designs.

 

i almost dont know what to say to this, its so flawed...ill only address one part.

why american? what percentage of sales is in america, vs asia vs BFE? you dont have even this very base information. and every assumption makes the end answer less reliable, much less wrong assumptions. worse yet, you dont know what you dont know, even if you DO know what youre talking about. everybody wants to be a dj, heh.
i promised to leave this to yall to contemplate the inconsequential, so imma quit bumpin this pointless thread.