According to Target's computer system, the SET date for Dark of the Moon is also the 15th. But the thing to keep in mind is that Target and Toys R' Us both close. They are not open 24 hours. Overnight stockers would stock the shelves or SET the products that night to be available on the 16th.
I am still banking on Walmart and Target rolling em out this Friday, and TRU scrambling to get up a display on Saturday. IIRC ROTF figures were suppost to be released on a Saturday, and Walmart and Target brought em out on Friday (happened to be at Walmart at midnight when they were stocking). Went to TRU at noon the next day and the manager was freaking out as they scrambled to get the display up, said something like "I don't care, just get the product out there asap". Though I did find a Target today that completely jumped the street date with a full display (like others have found).
It happens. For the first movie, one Walmart I live near put everything out the day before the release date so it would be good to go for midnight (very nice of them). They wrapped the ENTIRE shelf in clear wrap to prevent customers from getting anything. Didn't stop me though. Until I got to the register that ist...and they wouldn't scan until midnight. I stopped at Target the next morning and then TRU, and everything was "primed" and ready. Revenge of the Fallen was different. Not a single Walmart put anything out at midnight (around me anyway), and anytime I found anything early, the register wouldn't allow it. I had to get quite crafty to get the figures I wanted early. The sad thing is...for Revenge of the Fallen there was actually a crowd of fans. Rather than face our fury, they pulled out the pallets and let us have at it. Target didn't put anything out, and TRU scrambled to get stuff out as they were busy struggling with a blown up playset outside. I know, I watched them struggle until the store opened. Luckily I already have everything from Dark of the Moon cause just about every store blew the release date, and in both Walmart and Target the items are not locked out by date.