My prediction is it will lose the Oscar for Visual Effects to the sequel to the Golden Compass.

 

You are neither, Transformers won the award of the special effects academy, which is composed by experts on the matter, people who know what they are talking about and know how brilliant the CGI in transformers was, you simply can't discuss that, while on the other hand, the academy awards are given by people who just belong to the media.

 

I'm hoping visual effects and Musical score.

It needs to snag those two, cause heaven knows chances are it won't even be nominated for the rest.

Thank God I've never seen Pearl Harbor, nor paid to see it in theaters. Only the first Bad Boys movie, everything else has been 99cent rentals. =D

So I don't have that massive priced ticket for a crap movie hanging over my head for anyone other than Joel Schumacher, and even him while I have a refusal to watch anything of his now, I am a Lost Boys fan. So I will eventually forgive the bat nipples.

At least bay hasn't done that yet... (Waiting to see the final arcee concepts before I finish that thought.)

I have a feeling it's going to rock the MTV movie awards instead again this year.

That list of movies someone mentioned can't hold a candle to TF unless you're blind, as another stated Professionals have awarded which was more deserving, while the academy has fallen into just a corporate tool. If you can't see the difference in effects from even I, Robot to transformers, you either need glasses, or a new tv.

T2 - Pioneer of its time, but can't hold a candle to present day film grade, also made high use of shadows, and other techniques to lower CG cost. The use of real world props also helps make this a pioneer of it's time.
T3 - You can see the difference, especially in the liquified aspects of the metal.
Independence day - This one while having close to equal to TF effects, lacks many things transformers did to prove it's better. Plane fights are quite simplistic to do in CG. Even though it looked great, there's no real sense of scale they have to keep in the air, among many other tricks transformers didn't even attempt.
Godzilla - Now this is BS, they intentionally had the entire thing happen at night to avoid using high grade effects, Same trick Jurassic park used often. Night is used to make the effects seem more real, because it can't handle scrutiny under full daylight.
Armageddon - Nothing of similiar nature you can really compare, but the effects for many spots are fairly obvious to being fake.
The Island - Differences are visually obvious
The Matrix Trilogy - Differences are visually obvious. With Neo and Smith looking quite fake throughout.
War of the Worlds - The differences are visually obvious.
I, Robot. - The differences are so visually obvious I shouldn't have to explain it.

Transformers uses fewer tricks of the trade to hide things than any of those, has a higher poly count, and stronger renders. They also rarely used night time and shadowing to hide and lower effect cost. No scene stands out in my mind where shia looks fake. They nailed the lighting and shadows of the bots themselves, and more. Those movies listed can't hold a candle to TF1, so I doubt they could to 2. If you seriously can't see the difference in the ones I mentioned are visually obvious, please check your tv settings, or find a friend with an HD tv so you can compare. I, Robot especially was extremely obvious in CG usage. The CG renders of smith and neo looked more realistic than those did, and those renders shocked me out of enjoying the matrix with how fake they looked. We're talking weaker than beowulf, or Spirits Within. Stuff modern Consoles/PCs can do almost on the fly. Whereas TF1 is not.

I cannot honestly compare it to golden compass though, as I've yet to see that movie. From the little bit I had seen though, it fits the bill with what I had stated of even new pcs/consoles being able to do it on the fly. I also have a harder time accepting pure blue screen movies as legitimate realism as of yet. While I enjoy Casshern to great lengths, both it, and Sky captain you can see the effect use so obviously it's almost sickening if you aren't already into the property. That's how I tend to feel about Golden Compass, but again since I have yet to see it, I can't make a fair comparison. Narnia I wouldn't call better than transformers though, Narnia to me honestly doesn't have any effects I haven't already seen in commercials or tv shows. Just with a better filmgrade, and a more serious tone.

 

Unless some one spills the why of a film not grabbing the prize then we really don't have any way to know what sort of things the voters considered for the Oscar award. Since it's voted on by people who do this stuff for a living it's hard to say what makes them pick one movie over another movie since we just watch the movies.

 

"Aggressive studio lobbying still appears the most powerful indicator of what movie's likely to luck out at the Oscars, not what the British Academy have deemed award-worthy." There's more involved with this as well, even with votes being miscounted based on criteria of what they should be judging as part of the voting commitee. IE, there could be many professionals of CG work that voted for Transformers, but if they were outvoted by the rest of the commitee, it'd be moot. Even though they would be the ones who should speak on that behalf of the awards. The BAFTA is actually getting more notoriety for being fair and true to its intent as opposed to what the Oscars have become. Even becoming more prefered by actors and others in the industry.

For example, transformers raked in the dough on both dvd sales and ticket sales, it didn't need an academy award to get more viewers. Golden Compass could benefit from it though. As could many of the others that won over years. With even LOTR only getting it's award on the last movie due to the outcry of the other 2 not getting any. This has been a rising problem for the past decade, and most of it finally came to light during the wga strike. The commitee is around 6 thousand members currently of varying degree, a chunk not even being a part of the film industry at all, or at least an area that's not even judged either.

There are also issues of other reasons why various members of the commitee may be swayed due to various personal tastes they may have or personal grudges. Among many other complaints that have been lobbied about the process and it's almost pure anonymous setup.

And should I even bring up the fact John Wayne won his academy award for what's cited as his worst movie ever made? Simply because they thought he wouldn't be alive for another, and they didn't give him one for his better movies. Even though one or two he was nominated for were far better. This bias influences bad movies to be sold more, and good movies to fall to the wayside.
Then let's also look at the fact that last year, no movie won more than one oscar.
That has to be a first in all the years of the oscars. I'm personally not even sure how that's capable. A movie winning best picture without winning any other award at the show? What's the reason for it getting best picture then?

There have also been complaints in the past that best picture winners couldn't stand the test of time, and have been pretty much forgotten, while those ignored have become cult classics. (Clockwork Orange for example among more.) It's also been strongly criticized by even Ebert for the movies that didn't win. As I said, it has a lush history of conflicting voting habits for biased reasons.

Personally, I'd trust awards more if they actually were from that industry part that's being compared, and not from a conglomeration of some in that biz, and some not knowing the difference between great and schlock in that area of expertise because they deal with a completely different area of the biz.

 

I wouldn't think Bay's second Transformers movie would win for effects if all the robots end up being disguised as humans.

Maybe he could disguise them as polar bears instead.  

 

He could even try to disguise his abhorrent designs as Transformers... that'd be a feat.

 

Hell yes.