She's currently in the process of clarifying herself.

 

A slapped wrist from her boss no doubt!

 

Not the first time she's said something "incorrect" or "incorrectly" and had to clarify her statements ... Won't be the last . Lol.

 

Thats not way higher i dont think. 1% chance on 60 crystals =45% unless my maths is off,or i am not understanding what you are saying. 40 * 45% =18 expected 4 stars at 1%, assuming everyone had 60 crystals. 8 ppl put of 40 implies it might be c.0.5%.

Happy to be corrected

 

Multiple pulls do not accumulate. Your chance is per crystal. It resets on each crystal. The only slight advantage you get, is that you get multiple pulls, at 1% or likely less.

 

It's really something to see how many people don't see it that way, or fail to remember that the stated odds are reflective of the entire pool of crystals, not just a small sampling (such as a bundle).

 

Yes, i understand that.

Calculation is therefore 0.99^60 = 55% chance (on average) to not hit any of those 1%s by 60th pull. Therefore you have a 45% chance (on average) to have him by then. That is a statistical calculation, not me accumulating the odds per crystal.

 

I suck at math so I did some research on it and apparently the process to calculate the statistical outcome of this called the "Bernoulli process", a sequence of independent identically distributed Bernoulli trials (a finite or infinite sequence of binary random variables). Independence of the trials implies that the process is memoryless.

The formula is quite complex but they had a calculator you use to plug in the numbers. So I plugged in the following:

Event probablity: 0.018 (1.8%)
Number of independent trials: 60
Number of success events events = 1
In other words, if my chances are 1.8%, how likely will I see success in 60 attempts?

The probability came out to 0.36983, or 36.9%. So, after popping 60 crystals, each person had about a 37% chance to pull a 4 star.

 

37% seems very low for 1.8% a pull for 60 pulls. I mean dont get me wrong i havnt taken an actual maths class in 15 odd years but i struggle to see 60 times of 1.8% = 37%...

Ah,re reading what you have put, did you effectively ask what are the chances of ONLY one success? Ill have a look at the method you describe (good for a refresher if nothing else)

 

Your numbers don’t jive...8/40 people got a 4*, from 60 Crystals each. That’s 0.033%, assuming no dupe 4*s. 8 out of 2400 crystals opened.

 

True, 8 out of 2,400 crystals is insanity. My calculations could be wrong, or the odds aren't 1.8%. Taking that into consideration, the chance crystals must be 1%. Even then, we should have pulled 3x the amount of 4's at 24.

 

I'm not 100% sure on it, that's just based on the resources I found searching online. But yeah, the important part to remember is "the process is memoryless", so the increased amount of trials does not drastically improve the chance of success.

 

I saw someone mention on the Discord chat that on the TFEW Wiki, Swoop's character page had been updated to add a 5* stat placeholder. Someone else pointed out that this was not the case, but it did inspire to go look at the pages myself. Come to find out, there are currently 5 characters who have 5* stat placeholders that do not/have not had 5* versions in the game yet.

Optimus Primal, Ratchet, Hot Spot, Inferno, and Tigerhawk.

I posted that in my Line chat and one of our officers mentioned that Ratchet and Hot Spot have had those placeholders since before the current 5* batch was released (and were at one point predicted to be in the now current batch as a result), so I shouldn't read anything into it. But still...

 

Those characters have had those 5* columns on that wiki since before the 1st batch went away, except Tigerhawk obviously.

 

it gave me a sense of accomplishment for about 30 seconds LOL

 

So, Scourge/Swoop Vs Wasp/Tigertron what’s the early verdict?!

 

Swoop is better head to head, but from what I hear having both at a high level in outposts is devastating.

 

Shit event, but they're really pushing some sort of new thing that's on the way.

 

After 2 consecutive triple XP weekends, I expected nothing less. And honestly, I could prob use a chill weekend after putting up 81,000 pts lol. Definitely looking forward to seeing the new feature and crossing my fingers for a Tracks bundle!

 

The hope is that it's a copy of (or similar to) the Arena Battle system that the Chinese version has.