The Box Office Competition

Discussion in 'Transformers Movie Discussion' started by Foster, Oct 23, 2006.

  1. Foster

    Foster Super Mod

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    Harry Potter and The Simpsons are also coming out next July, on the 13th and 27th respectively. Both properties vastly dwarf the name recognition and popularity of Transformers. What impact will these other films have on the success of the Transformers film? I think it will be a lot, and Transformers had better have one hell of an opening weekend to not be gone in a month's time.
     
  2. Acid Wing

    Acid Wing Senior Alien TF Member

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    I'll try to be optimistic and hope that the TF movie does well at the box office similar to when the first Spiderman movie appeared, simply because it'll be the first time that it hits the big screen. Or at least rake in enough to surpass its budget within a week to 10 days. But frankly, I think the competition will definitely be rough with a gazillion Potter and Simpson fans. Plus, isn't it a pattern now, that summer movies don't usually last long after placing first for a certain weekend?
     
  3. Dio

    Dio Scrapper

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    One thing that may be noteworthy on those two movies you bring up, is that they're both from franchises that are nearing the twilight of their appeal - The Simpsons has been around forever, and lately has not been as successful because people get the perception that it has run out of entertaining and fresh material. Harry Potter, while it is more successful historically, has been seeing some trouble with the child stars growing out of their roles and incorporating darker, more mature themes into the story that may turn off younger viewers.

    I don't doubt that Potter will still be overwhelmingly successful, but it's not going to be as big a phenomenon as, say, Pirates of the Caribbean 2. Simpsons seems like shark-jumping to me.

    They'll be competition, stiff even, but I don't see them as juggernauts that will completely smack the TF movie out of peoples' minds.
     
  4. Nerd Bomber

    Nerd Bomber Consulting your needs

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    Harry Potter will smoke transformers once it comes out.
     
  5. Seth Buzzard

    Seth Buzzard R.I.P. Buzzbeak Content Contributor

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    I think the best they can hope for is for Transformers to open at #1, got to #2 the following week and #3 the week after. As long as it degrades like that I think the movie will do fine, it’s become more and more rare for a movie to go into week two holding the #1 spot in the summer these days. They could have problems if it goes from 1 to 3 not only falling to the next “big movie” but slipping under something that came out before it.
     
  6. Nerd Bomber

    Nerd Bomber Consulting your needs

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    or, even worse, come in at #2 the first week
     
  7. Rumble02

    Rumble02 Radicon of Obliticons

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    its sad but true isnt it. Transformers needs to come out when nothing else spectacular is coming
     
  8. Random Autobot

    Random Autobot Soviet Kanukistani

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    There's a whole slew of movies coming out next summer that could potentially dwarf "Transformers" box office wise, not to mention quality wise, the way things are shaping up.

    I mean seriously, nobody actually expects this movie to hold tough against a Harry Potter, or a Pirates movie... do they?
     
  9. Steevy Maximus

    Steevy Maximus Movie Megs eats your soul

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    This has been a longstanding debate at the Allspark, and this is a debate we can go around and around about but really can't know much about this until next July.

    I DO think fosterlager is forgetting two far bigger movies coming out before TF: Spider-Man 3 and Pirates 3, both of which have HUGELY successful films before them, moreso than Potter. And then Fantastic 4 II is coming out a week earlier.

    I really do think TF will do well, while Pirates 3 and SM3 are "bigger films", they are still sequels, whereas Transformers (if marketed well) is a largely "fresh" idea.

    I mean c'mon, what kid would NOT go to see a movie about giant transforming robots?
     
  10. Random Autobot

    Random Autobot Soviet Kanukistani

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    Pirates 2 made far more money that the first one did... I believe it's now the number two box office grosser of all time after Titanic. There's every reason to believe that number 3 will dwarf the competition... even Spiderman could suffer.

    Transformers at least has the benefit of coming out 2 months after those two Juggernauts, but it will get clobbered when Harry Potter comes out, that's a given.
     
  11. deymasc

    deymasc Well-Known Member

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    They really should've scheduled & opened TF around the holidays (Nov/Dec). It would've made better marketing sense in terms of the inevitable merchandise. Even still, it will suffer at the hands of the summer glut of films. I'm hoping that's not the case, but I see it happening.
    As for your other comments...I think Spiderman 3 will be the film to beat in '07, with POC coming in second. That trailer was kickass...and it was just a teaser!
     
  12. KA

    KA PENIS GOES WHERE?!!

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    the movie magazines are already behind the TF movie based on spielberg's clout alone. that in itself will ensure a top ten ranking for a couple'a weeks.

    no worries guys, even the worst of michael bay's has yet to tank completely. we're in safe hands.

    .....

    haha, i just jinxed it.
     
  13. Steevy Maximus

    Steevy Maximus Movie Megs eats your soul

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    The Island

    Too LATE HAHAHAHAHA!

    (Seriously, while weak in the US, it did very well overseas, actually making back most of its budget, the international market is VERY lucrative, especially Japan)
     
  14. Seth Buzzard

    Seth Buzzard R.I.P. Buzzbeak Content Contributor

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    I think very few people think it has much of a shot of being the biggest movie of the summer, but I think it will do respectable numbers.
     
  15. Spekkio

    Spekkio Master of War

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    I didn't realize how loaded next summer's slate was! What a great summer for the geeks! (TF, Spidey, FF, Pirates....) I'm surprised that Harry Potter is going to be a summer movie this time - they've almost always been Autumn movies.

    Something tells me that TF is going to do well if it wows people enough. Word of mouth can work wonders.
     
  16. IACON

    IACON "That's Vector Sigma?" TFW2005 Supporter

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    Here is my rates:

    The simpson - 1st place
    harry Potter - 2nd place
    Bay's Transformers - 3rd and will drop the first 10 after the opening week :ev: 
     
  17. Tenebrouser

    Tenebrouser Craft...or is it crap?

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    It's opening on July 4, and it's largely a movie people want to see. It'll do big business.

    Most movies simply don't carry the weight to dominate the box office week in and week out anymore. They're few and far between. If TFs does $100 million over a two weekend period, it'll be a success and grant sequels, IMO.

    As for the Simpsons movie....who cares? Nobody talks about that show anymore.
     
  18. IACON

    IACON "That's Vector Sigma?" TFW2005 Supporter

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    Ok.... I've been on the boards long timer now but please somebody please tell me what IMO stands for ?
    This is the one term I couldn't figure out yet.
     
  19. QuantumShock

    QuantumShock Stay for brunch ?

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    In My Opinion.
     
  20. IACON

    IACON "That's Vector Sigma?" TFW2005 Supporter

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    Thank you :thumb 
     

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