TF Summer Movie Competition

Discussion in 'Transformers Movie Discussion' started by Incepticon, Dec 19, 2006.

  1. Incepticon

    Incepticon Double Agent

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    May 04: Spider-Man 3
    May 18: Shrek the Third
    May 25: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
    Jun 08: Ocean's Thirteen
    Jun 15: Fantastic Four and the Silver Surfer
    Jun 22: Evan Almighty
    Jul 04: Transformers / Live Free or Die Hard
    Jul 13: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
    Jul 27: The Simpsons Movie
    Aug 03: The Bourne Ultimatum


    Bruce Almighty was a HUGE hit at the box office, so it's sequel featuring Steven Correl - who is at the height of his career at the moment - will probably do a lot better than most people may initially assume. Plus it actually looks good - for anyone that liked the first one anyway.

    Spider-Man 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3, Harry Potter 5 and The Simpsons are no-brainers - they will absolutely destroy everything in their path at the box office and be in competition with each other more so than anything to do with TF.

    Ocean's Thirteen & The Bourne Ultimatum are also Part 3's of successful established franchises aimed at a 20-40 year old demographic, so there's no doubt that they will also do extremely well. May not be #1 for more than opening weekend, but they'll have the staying power to make them successes.

    Die Hard 4 will be a toss-up. For as many people that think another installment is overkill, it's still Die Hard, one of the most successful action franchises ever. People thought that a 6th Rocky movie would be completely ridiculous as well, but look what's happened, nothing but glowing praise across the board. The same could very well happen with DH4. Never underestimate Oprah worshipping middle-aged woman who still love to see their Bruce Willis', George Clooney's, Matt Damon's, Sly Stallone's, Brad Pitt's, Al Pacino's, etc. on the big screen.

    So out of just those upcoming summer films, I think it's a pretty safe bet that Fantastic Four 2 and Transformers will easily end up at the bottom of the totem pole. In fact, I think FF2 is about the only movie TF could beat at this point... but that's not really saying much. All the other films are powerhouses, whether it's because of their movie star draw or franchise draw. Transformers on the other hand: no noteable movie stars to be found outside of F-list wash-ups, TV flavors of the week & complete no-names, it's about giant robots, it's about a toy line that look nothing like the actual toys everyone remembers, it's a Michael Bay film which in itself is a downside when people remember things like The Island & Armageddon... and oh yeah, one more time, it's about a 20 year old TOY line. At this stage, the biggest thing TF has going for it is Speilberg's name attached as a producer, Dreamworks' & Paramount's names as studios and ILM's name as special FX. Then again, none of that really made a lick of difference for the success of War Of The Worlds... and that one starred Tom "Box Office" Cruise and had Spielberg directing.

    Regardless, whether you agree with my personal statements or not, it's still going to be an interesting summer to say the least. That said, I'll now let Mr. Bauer and whoever else take over to explain why in *fact* TF will be a monumental success, why any of us doubters are fully & completely wrong, so on and so forth.

    :thumb 
     
  2. Cory Bauer

    Cory Bauer Well-Known Member

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    :D  Thanks for thinking of me ;) 

    You know my stance on it. I'll let the Transformers teaser speak for itself in 14 hours, 15 minutes, 0 seconds.

    Next year will definitely be a great one for movie lovers, undeniably.
     
  3. Omnibus Prime

    Omnibus Prime I'm too old for this shit TFW2005 Supporter

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    Er...http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=waroftheworlds.htm

    War of the Worlds may not have been quite AS big as some involved had hoped, but it was far, far removed from 'failure' by any stretch, financially anyway.

    Evan Almighty won't be that big, nor will the Simpsons. The Bourne and Ocean franchises are successful but not hugely so (none of the four have broken $200 mil). FF2..pfft. $150M tops...just enough to justify its existence.

    Spider-Man 3, POTC 3 and Shrek 3, OTOH, will all zoom past $300 million, probably$400, with Potter following closely behind on his broom.

    BOTH Die Hard and TFs are the ones hardest to peg actually. It'll have been 12 years since the last Die Hard and the movie environment has changed. TFs are a complete unknown. That could spell unexpected success for one or both, or certain doom. TF almost certainly has a higher hill to climb to turn a profit though.
     
  4. Harlequin Daniel

    Harlequin Daniel Captain Grumpy

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    War of the Worlds had Tom "Scientology" Cruise in it.
    That's why *I* as someone who loved the 1953 version didn't go and see it.
     
  5. Incepticon

    Incepticon Double Agent

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    Yeah, very true. Tom's couch jumping school boy behavior on Oprah kind of made him into a lunatic over night, and it is widely believed that his retarded antics topped with his Scientology preaching are what kept WOTW and M:I-3 from being much bigger successes than they were.
     
  6. Sideways

    Sideways Banned

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    the only movies im looking forward to are the new transformers and spiderman 3...
    i havent seen either Pirates movies so i doubt i'll go see the 3rd one.
     
  7. Omnibus Prime

    Omnibus Prime I'm too old for this shit TFW2005 Supporter

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    Bah! I dinna care what these fools do outside of the 2 hours they're on film. All that matters is if the movie is any good. WotW had its faults, but it was a hell of a lot more like the book than the '53 version, which while a classic, is now in second place IMO.
     
  8. Kickback

    Kickback Proud father Administrator Super Mod News Staff

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    Just an FYI from people's reaction at the mall I work at (and I talk to a good few hundred people a day):

    - Spiderman 3
    "Another one? Is that series over with yet?"

    - Oceans Thirteen
    "What's that about again?"

    - The Simpsons
    "I don't know if I could stand two hours of the Simpsons without a break."

    - Transformers
    "I remember those from when I was a kid! It's all live-action, right? That should be freakin' awesome."

    - Harry Potter 5
    "My kid(s) want to see it."

    - Fantastic Four (and the Silver Surfer)
    "I never saw the first one" (always gets me :lol )

    I barely heard about Shrek 3, Pirates 3 will be huge of course, and Evan Almighty will actually probably be a flop. Transformers beat out Fantastic Four 2 for the "July 4th" release date, and Target chose Transformers over Spider-Man for the "exclusive toyline" of the summer movie biz.

    I think we all underestimate the power of our beloved franchise.
     
  9. Josh

    Josh Comic Color-guy

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    interesting fact i didnt know about

    very cool :D 

    and yeah, i tend to agree

    i think TF will do fairly well. everyone i talk to are hesitant at first but once i mention live action they're like "no way! man that sounds awesome!"

    trailers/previews will no doubt calm all of that
    kiddies will go see it cuz they have TF toys, 20-sumthins will see it cuz of nostalgia, anyone higher will see it cuz it looks like a sweet action movie

    i think it'll do alright


    [and pirates 3 is out that quick? heck yes :D  its gonna be a busy year xD]
     
  10. Backscatter

    Backscatter Autobot Brainmaster TFW2005 Supporter

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    Interesting. Every movie listed above is a sequel of some kind with the exception of the New Transformers Movie. I don't have a crytal ball like most fans (sold out before I could get one) but at least this summer will be filled with good choices, with a July 4th double feature!
     
  11. Fairlady_Z

    Fairlady_Z Official Voice of Flareup

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    My personal predictions:

    Spider-Man 3 - really looking forward to this one, but it coming out two whole months before TFs so I don't think we have much to worry about, it will do very well I think but by the time even Pirates rolls around people will be saying Spider-Man 3? Seen it already. It was awesome. What's next?

    Shrek - will do well for an animated film, the kids will see it, but I lost interest a long time ago. It will do well as a filler between Spider-Man and Pirates I think.

    Pirates - will smash record again I think. I loved the first one. Thought 2 was too out there. But I definately want to see how the trilogy ends. Will it recover from the more outlandish elements of 2 and be the best part of the trilogy yet or will it do a Matrix and make us wish they'd stopped after the first movie? But love it or hate it people are still going to want to see it much like the Star Wars prequels just because of all the hype. Fortunately it's still out a month and a few weeks before TFs.

    Ocean's 13 - will probably have a good opening weekend, but will only dent the big blockbusters, it might stay in the top five for a while but it will only be number one until the next big thing comes along.

    Fantastic Four 2 - personally I liked the first one and don't know what everyone was complaining about, but I think 2 will have a much stonger story with the elements more F4 fans are familiar with. The first movie's reputation may hurt it though, but if it's any better than the first one it may win people over to make it a success. I don't think it will be as big as Spider-Man or Pirates, but for those who have already seen Spidey and Pirates it will give them their superhero/popcorn flick fix for the month.

    Evan Almighty - it might do well as the best comedy of the summer, but I think it won't stand in the top position for long with all the action blockbusters it's competing with.

    Transformers - Assuming F4 doesn't turn out to be the next Spidey 2, TF has a really good spot with it's spacing in relation to the other summer movies. People will still be seeing Pirates and maybe even Spidey but it won't be the opening weekend droves. The June films will do well, but TF has the potential for Pirates level hype and as the only new thing in a summer of sequels that alone makes it stand out. I think TFs can expect a really good opening weekend. The hype will make people check it out. I'm not worried about that, it's what will happen after that first weekend that will see if it's a hit, a plumeting bomb, or something in between. Die Hard may draw away some of the older male action junkies, but the kids, teens, and families are going to be more drawn to TFs, especially if they want to get it in before Harry Potter next weekend.

    Harry Potter 5 - Will be the biggest imediate competiton to TFs, especially if book 7 comes out next summer to finish the series. The franchise may be aging but it shows little signs of slowing down. TFs may take a hit in it's 2nd weekend, but even if it drops to #2 for a week I still think it will have some mega numbers on it's side. Week three may be a better estimation of TFs staying power as a movie.

    Simpsons - while the Simpsons machine is not what it was, it still has the potential to do well just because of the name or it could bomb because all the good Simpsons jokes were used up years ago. This one's kind of a wild card. I think as long as TFs keeps pulling in good numbers it doesn't necessarily have to be #1 every week to be considered one of the biggest blockbusters of the summer. Simpsons may have a good first weekend but I think the crowds will die off quicker for it than TFs.

    The Bourne Ultimatum - coming in as the new thing as late as August should work in it's favor and should make it do well, but if TFs has proven strong at this point, it won't stop people from wanting to still see it for very long.
     
  12. Motor_Master

    Motor_Master Lets the balls touch TFW2005 Supporter

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    May 04: Spider-Man 3
    May 18: Shrek the Third
    May 25: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
    Jun 08: Ocean's Thirteen
    Jun 15: Fantastic Four and the Silver Surfer
    Jun 22: Evan Almighty
    Jul 04: Transformers / Live Free or Die Hard
    Jul 13: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
    Jul 27: The Simpsons Movie
    Aug 03: The Bourne Ultimatum

    Spidy will have been in theaters for nearly 2 months before Transformers hits (and Shrek and Pirates a month and a half approximately). Ocean's, FF and EA will do alright but they they are all sequals. To me this adds up to TF having a very good opening weekend. However its reign as top movie will be torpedoed by Harry Potter the following week, simply because so many darn kids and adults will want to see it. Die hard will do well but if you've seen the first 3 die hard films then you pretty much know the pattern for the fourth (or at least that's what people will be thinking). I think TF will have 5 to 6 good weeks at the box office.
     
  13. ILoveDinobot

    ILoveDinobot Arise Rodimus Prime

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    Yay Another Shrek!
     
  14. Foster

    Foster Super Mod

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    Out of those, Die Hard and Transformers are the only ones I'll see in the theater.
     
  15. Motor_Master

    Motor_Master Lets the balls touch TFW2005 Supporter

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    Sadly Ill probably end up seeing all of those in the theaters
     
  16. Ops_was_a_truck

    Ops_was_a_truck JOOOLIE ANDREWWWWWS!!!!!!

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    Damn, that's a lineup.
     
  17. Incepticon

    Incepticon Double Agent

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    Pfft... something tells me this is a GREATLY exagerated statement. If you're supposedly talking to hundreds of people a day and somehow have time to chat movies with them, I highly doubt most of them are saying "Is that series over with yet?" in reference to Spider-Man of all things - which has only had 2 prior movies so far - both of which were record breaking box office smashes.

    Really? People are already talking to you about Ocean's Thirteen even though most people don't even know a 3rd installment of that series is confirmed to come out yet? Wow. You must work at a theater to be encountering such a regular stream of in-the-know movie buffs.

    Sounds to me more like your personal opinion than a general concensus from hundreds of people daily, especially in reference to one of the longest running & most successful shows of all time.

    No, I think we underestimate diehard TF fans turning their wishful thinking into supposed fact on forums.
     
  18. Ruination04

    Ruination04 8 Years Old Since 1984!

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    Life is good!
     
  19. Vangelus

    Vangelus Long Live the New Flesh Moderator Content Contributor

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    Unless F4 exceeds expectations -and- obliterates its predacessor, I'd say Transformers and Die Hard will both do pretty well for a week before Harry Potter comes in and sits on everything else in the theatre.
     

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