Second week drop - Guess?

Discussion in 'Transformers Movie Discussion' started by monosierra, Jun 28, 2009.

  1. monosierra

    monosierra Well-Known Member

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    Any guesses for the second week domestic BO after the stunning opening 5 days?

    So far this year:

    X-Men Origins: 69%
    Star Trek: 42.8%
    Angels & Demons: 53%
    Up: 35.2%

    Consider repeat viewings, poor reviews, excellent audience reactions etc.
     
  2. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite Well-Known Member

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    50-60%. When you have such a major opening it's impossible to maintain alot of momentum into the second week. Most people who want to see ROTF will have seen it this week with the die-hards returning for another go-around and extreme casuals wandering in for future weeks.
     
  3. jayslim213

    jayslim213 Member

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    it will of course drop, since it does not have a 5day weekend and its not the opening weekend.

    i think it will drop to about 35% to 45% of the total from this 5 day weekend (which will prob be 195 to 200 mil). i think the audience's reactions will be more of a factor as to how the second week will do.

    just have to wait till next monday to see the official results.
     
  4. Ruthie

    Ruthie Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't be surprised if it fell off 68-73%. But I think 55-60 will be more like it.
     
  5. 03Mach1

    03Mach1 Reason Has No Voice

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    I'm no expert, but 35-40% would be a fair number.
     
  6. monosierra

    monosierra Well-Known Member

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    Star Trek - very good reviews & word of mouth
    Wolverine - Poor reviews & word of mouth
    TF - built in fascination value + poor reviews
     
  7. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite Well-Known Member

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    The Dark Knight had a 52.5% drop after first week; Harry Potter & The Order of the Pheonix tanked 57.8% while Spiderman 3 had a 61.3% drop. This is simply a matter of reason. If most moviegoers see a movie off the bat, it stands to reason that there's going to be a sharp drop off in later weeks. The aforementioned movies all had huge openings like ROTF, so a big drop should be expected.
     
  8. Superion33

    Superion33 Banned

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    I think its fair to assume that the people who go watch a movie after the initial release weekend are the more choosier ones. The public at large that goes to see a movie just to see a movie will already have seen ROTF. The choosier ones are the ones who take the reviews and word of mouth into account. Should be interesting to see the results.
     
  9. ItsStarscream

    ItsStarscream ImmortalSeekerGod

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    Word of mouth is powerful. The bad reviews are powerful. I think part of whats giving it such high total opening week is already the repeat viewers. I know every single person in my area (that I know) that saw the first one will NOT be seeing this one BECAUSE of reviews and comments online. Some neighors of mine that have 3 children that loved the fist movie will not be taking them to see this one when I warned them of the potty humor and the language....so sad, too bad....

    Id love to know the totals this week minus the repeat viewing. Id love to know the % that got up and walked out in the middle of watching and then figuratively deduct their ticket sales. Might be interesting or might not make a difference, who knows. I would like to think its going to drop over 60% this coming week. Then maybe we will see the real attraction for this movie. All movies drop after opening week but its their staying power at the theaters that helps define how good they truly are....wonder what TF2 will show...
     
  10. monosierra

    monosierra Well-Known Member

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    We'll have to see how many kids force their parents into watching ROTF again.
     
  11. ntsan

    ntsan Well-Known Member

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    Well there is Ice Age 3 release on 1st july..
     
  12. Predaking

    Predaking Well-Known Member

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    Should be around 50-60%.
     
  13. ItsStarscream

    ItsStarscream ImmortalSeekerGod

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    LOL well some parents have higher standards. What can I say. I know these do and I know they wont let their kids go watch it because of what I mentioned. Take it for what you will.

    I don't know the ice age movies but I think they saw the first one *shrug* so might the second??
     
  14. monosierra

    monosierra Well-Known Member

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    Ice Age will be a big competition for the family crowd. Won't be surprised if that takes a chunk out of potential second-time family audiences.
     
  15. Haloid1177

    Haloid1177 Hey, That's Pretty Good TFW2005 Supporter

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    I would say a 40% drop. I think it will have a strong weekend, and could still possibly open at no. 1, imo.
     
  16. FriskyPinewood

    FriskyPinewood Well-Known Member

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    Id say it drops at least 60%. It had a long 5 day opening, all the die hards have seen it. Its going to be up to the folks who don't like dealing with opening weekend lines and crowds. Its not exactly known as a family friendly kinda movie, especialy those with young children. And with next weekend being the 4th of July holiday, that could hurt it even more. Although it doesn't have direct competition in the special effects spectacle catargory until Harry Potter. The studios gave ROTF plenty of room to flex its muscles. so its all up to how people react to the film...
     
  17. Acid Wing

    Acid Wing Senior Alien TF Member

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    I'll overestimate and probably say 55-60% considering that Ice Age 3 and Depp's Public Enemies will be coming out then.
     
  18. ItsStarscream

    ItsStarscream ImmortalSeekerGod

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    LOL@ your sig!!

    "..Chuck Norris ordered a Big Mac at Burger King........................ And got one..."
     
  19. Foster

    Foster Super Mod

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    I want to see that Dillinger film. That looks really good. I like gangster films more than sci-fi anyway.
     
  20. Coolyfett

    Coolyfett Well-Known Member

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    How long was TF1 in theaters, many think TF2 will be in for a shorter time frame.
     

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