Either way, it's basically a wash and you CAN use the estimated production budget as a base line. If anything else, that's basically the studio's "break even" line and one of the only numbers that does get released to the public.

Which is why it's important to keep an eye on. Power Rangers even made money - but the studio was expecting a lot more if they were to commit to a sequel. In that way, it wasn't a flop. It just didn't perform to expectations. There was a filmmaker not long ago lamenting the fact that it wasn't all that long ago that if a movie made it past the estimated production budget even a little bit, the film was deemed a success. Now studios want north $700 million global if they plan to invest $250-300 million. Basically, they want double or more their investment back so that they can reinvest the money into bigger and bigger sequels. The problem is that if a movie franchise goes beyond the three film rule, you start running into the "Law of Diminishing Returns" and you run into a brick wall like TLK or Solo.

 

How can you say 750 million is without the marketing budget when you use the marketing budget in the equation?

Again, that's all accounted for. The breakeven point is generally always the production budget estimate. But let's say you are right on the 50%. That's still more than half way to breakeven.

It only needs to make $128 million to break even. The marketing money would have been spent regardless so it's not counted by studios when gauging the film's success. If it wasn't BB The Movie, it would've just been used for Action Point or Overlord.

 

Furthermore, regarding marketing costs:

$200 Million and Rising: Hollywood Struggles With Soaring Marketing Costs

 

Theaters keep their cut (of box office revenue). Generally US Theaters keep half (of ticket sales on US film).
Return of Investment (ROI) in the US = 50% of box office.
ROI overseas = 25% of box office.
Do the math.

 

Also, take a look at the Movie Studio behind Bumblebee -Paramount Pictures, which, is not a matter of risk, but doomed for failure.

Paramount has been struggling with declining gross revenue year by year. Here's an example of how bad - Paramount's proud No.1 film in 2017, yes you guessed right, Transformers TLK, was No.25 in 2017 US domestic box results, between No. 24 "Wonder" and No. 26 "Girls trip". That's how bad.

Paramount's top film in 2018 is Mission Impossible - Fallout, with a 220M US gross. In terms of box office, will Bumble and newcomer girl beat Tom Cruise and his well established Mission Impossible Universe? I highly doubt it. I wouldn't call Bumblebee a flop, just not feeling some of your optimistic, that it will beat Aquaman.

Hasbro will continue making Transformer toys as always, just Paramount we're talking about here. Not end of the world.

 

The movie has a higher chance of flopping than it has of being a success. Travis Knight is not a guy that tends to bring in alot of people to the theater, 80s nostalgia has been losing steam, the franchise is poisoned, the release day is crowded.

 

Could not perform like the last transformers movies, but not become a totally flop.

 

All depends on people overcoming Franchise Fatigue.

 

Bumblebee does have a factor that most films don't have to deal with. Since Paramount has new leadership just how much will Bumblebee have to make for the new leadership to feel like they must stay the course? Maybe just making a profit would be enough but what sort of moving of the goal post might the new leadership make if they really want to put their own stamp on Transformers?

 

Omfg that bad?!

 

not impressed with the bumblebee trailer...then again tlk looked awesome so...

 

I think you and like 3 other people are alone on that.

 

BoxOffice Pro put up the long range tracking for the December 14-16 frame (Long Range Tracking: 'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,' 'Mortal Engines,' 'The Mule,' & 'Second Act' - BoxOffice Pro). In the next two weeks we will have a basic estimate. They aren't usually off the mark when it comes to projections, unless the movie turns out to be an exception  

 

very good observation, agree with you.