I'm predicting 1 Billion total box-office gross for TF2.

Discussion in 'Transformers Movie Discussion' started by ganymede2010, Jul 3, 2008.

  1. ganymede2010

    ganymede2010 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2007
    Posts:
    400
    News Credits:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    76
    Likes:
    +1
    That's right, I'm predicting that TF2 will do 1 Billion dollars. I don't think it's to far fetched being that the first one did 700 million total, despite the anti-sentiment and fanboi rage over the controversial designs prior to it's release. The only way to accomplish this is through word of mouth, and repeat viewings. So it's critical that Bay & Company respects the core fan-base. Casting the Constructicons, Soundwave and Jetfire is definitely a step in the right direction. If he's able to nail those characters, then it's safe to say the core fan-base will have no problem revisiting the theater for another screening.

    Last but not least, Bay must continue to connect with the average movie goer without alienating his core fan-base, and I'm confident that Bay will accomplish that task. Once the first trailer debuts that shows Devastator, it's going to be pure pandemonium on the interwebs. Just the titanic buzz this movie needs to eclipse the 1 Billion dollar marker. So, what do you all think, is one Billion likely to happen or no, if not, then why?
     
  2. darthrage

    darthrage Leader Class

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2007
    Posts:
    1,441
    News Credits:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Likes:
    +4
    Its possible.

    I'm just basing this on the possibility that domestically, it is possible that it can do what the 2nd Pirates of the Carribean did for the franchise.

    POTC1 - $305
    POTC2 - $423

    So if the first Transformers did $319, its highly possible that it can do at least another $50 million.

    And internationally, the movie can probably do another $200 million considering its awareness now. If not 1 billion, then probably $900 million worldwide.
     
  3. llamatron

    llamatron Shut up, Nigel. TFW2005 Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2002
    Posts:
    8,969
    News Credits:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    262
    Likes:
    +11
    I would say it's fairly unlikely.
     
  4. omegagoalie

    omegagoalie Cybertronian Puckstopper

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2008
    Posts:
    1,907
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Likes:
    +0
    Ebay:
    Well they'll get at least $40 from me:D 
     
  5. Starscream NZ

    Starscream NZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2005
    Posts:
    2,602
    News Credits:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Likes:
    +4

    Sorry, but your logic seems awfully flawed. Pleasing the TF fans isn't going to rake Bay and Paramount an extra $300 million dollars, no matter if every fan saw the movie 100 times would it make up the money to compare to the average movie goer. I would be surprised if TF2 makes more than 800 Million all up, I definitely don't see it making a billion.

    Also, there's been nothing said about a trailer with Devastator being in it, let alone the film. I seriously doubt that even if the bring combining Constructicons into the film they'll show Devstator. If they were smart, they'd show a few seconds beforehand, having Scrapper yell 'Constructicons unite!'.
     
  6. Poho

    Poho That's MISTER Poho to you

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2007
    Posts:
    6,207
    News Credits:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    176
    Likes:
    +1
    I'd say that's a good guess, but a little exaggerated. But think of it this way:
    probably 99% of the people who saw it in theaters will go see the sequel in theaters again, so that means another 700 million. Now take into account all the people who DIDN'T see it in theaters, but on DVD and loved it, and are going to see the sequel in theaters. Now i know you can't base statistics on small numbers, but i'd say 4 of 5 people i know have seen TF. 99% of them have loved it. And about 25% of them did not see it in theaters. So let's round it up to 100%. so the people who DID see it in theaters make up 75%, and 25% DID not, but will see the sequel. 25 is 1/3 of 75 so we can assume that there will be a 33% profit increase due to a 33% increase in audience size. 33% of 700 is 233.3, so cap that on top of the 700 million and we get 933 million dollars. plus or minus (LOL).

    so yeah that's some pretty vague and flaky guessing-math, but i'd say 900 million is a pretty safe bet. the general trend is for sequels to make more money than their predecessors.
     
  7. Nutcrusher

    Nutcrusher Decepticon

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2007
    Posts:
    1,228
    News Credits:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Likes:
    +4
    That'd be nice.
     
  8. llamatron

    llamatron Shut up, Nigel. TFW2005 Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2002
    Posts:
    8,969
    News Credits:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    262
    Likes:
    +11
    You're numbers are so crazy you may as well have just pulled a final total out of a hat (or ass :p ).
     
  9. Dolza_Khyron

    Dolza_Khyron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2002
    Posts:
    19,768
    Trophy Points:
    287
    Likes:
    +46
    they'll get $5 plus the dvd two disk set price, from me :D !
     
  10. Tr4nce

    Tr4nce TrancEaddict

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2007
    Posts:
    589
    News Credits:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    101
    Likes:
    +2
    Well, the first movie did really, really great for a 'new' franchise. It grossed more than 700 million in total. Sequels always cash in more, because they benefit from the already established name, like Harry Potter, Spiderman, etc. etc.

    Therefore, I think 1 billion is very believable.
     
  11. AnimatedFan

    AnimatedFan Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2008
    Posts:
    2,657
    Trophy Points:
    151
    Likes:
    +0
    THIS.

    Yes it's true that if you combine domestic and foreign box office receipts, plus the DVD sales and add it all (which Paramount's bean counters did) and yes, it did make a billion dollars total.

    Yes it's true that that's a good sign for a film coming out of nowhere, with such a silly premise.

    It's not true, however, that lightning will absolutely strike twice. Possible? Sure. Gonna happen? Not a chance.

    Sequels always fare worse than the original film. On occasion, they have been critically lauded and taken more box office than the original, but that is extremely rare.

    Plus...

    The film polarized a lot of the fandom. You either liked it, or you hated it and there was no inbetween for this sucker. Same went for general audiences. For the most part, they liked it (obviously) but there were plenty that were turned off by the final product (and ya'll know it's true!) and they won't be returning for the second installment.

    With that in mind, I foresee that the film could do a respectable (and realistic) take of $300-400 this time around. Pretty much replicate the first's box office and then some (perhaps) and if you put DVD sales in with it, I could see it doing $700 over time (again...over time.) but I don't imagine it could go anywhere near a billion again. It would sure be nice, but no.

    I do think, however, that it will be a lot of fun and as long as they make any profit on it, then all's well in my book. The movie got paid for, the audience had a great time, there's new toys to buy.

    And that's what's most important.
     
  12. Vector Sigma

    Vector Sigma <b><i><font color=FFFF00>Crazy Colon Burner!!!!</b Veteran

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2002
    Posts:
    6,510
    Trophy Points:
    221
    Likes:
    +0
    I'd have to imagine that atleast some of the people who saw the film will have seen it for the same beautifully rendererd shite-fest that I did, and not pay for a cinema ticket to the sequel.

    But even though I thought it was pretty terrible, I'll still go see the 2nd theatrically and hope for less of a car crash experience...
     
  13. MACRAPTRON

    MACRAPTRON Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2003
    Posts:
    3,442
    News Credits:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    202
    Likes:
    +8
    I think it won't be that easy. With the huge success of the 2007 movie, the other studios will prepare themselves better for TF2.
     
  14. Poho

    Poho That's MISTER Poho to you

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2007
    Posts:
    6,207
    News Credits:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    176
    Likes:
    +1
    I believe you are incorrect. Did you research that?

    You're just not turbosmart like I am!!! You need to drink more Powerthirst.
     
  15. vektsilver

    vektsilver Transorganic member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2006
    Posts:
    1,684
    Trophy Points:
    176
    Likes:
    +0
    Um a movie sight unseen making 1 billion when the first was highly questioned as to whether the popularity of the brand lifted it that far to begin with is being a little over optimistic to early.

    Understand with out solid story people will eventually look at the great CG and say "i have seen it before" and the only thing to keep them coming back would be a good story. I would say the story is really only as good as the direction which all of these things are a crap shoot considering how the first film seemed rushed at the end.

    I would say dont overestimate how much a 20 year wait for a live action transformers film had to do with the box office success. People were salivating just over the notion and that may or may not be the same second time round.

    And yes Sequals have a much harder time than the originals because the hype and buzz is less for the same reasons i stated above.

    I have to admit I kind of want it to tank just to get a differant director
     
  16. darthrage

    darthrage Leader Class

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2007
    Posts:
    1,441
    News Credits:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Likes:
    +4
    The fact that TF2 is being released on July 26, 2009 instead of July 4 might affects its take on the box office.

    I wonder how Ice Age 3 manage to take the Independence Day spot instead of TF2???
     
  17. t4e

    t4e Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2008
    Posts:
    59
    Trophy Points:
    46
    Likes:
    +0
    Good topic this!

    A lot of franchise films like X-Men were more successful with each one released. From memory X-Men 1 took about $150m, No.2 did about $180m while the 3rd one did over $220m. Shrek 1 did $265m while Shrek 2 did $441m and is currently the 2nd highest grossing film of all time in the US behind Titanic ($600m)

    I reckon TF2 will top $300m again in the US. Would love to see it go north of $350m or even $400m. Worldwide awareness will be much better for TF2 so I reckon a worldwide gross of $900m is possible, but like many would love it to top $1bn!!

    Jon
     
  18. darthrage

    darthrage Leader Class

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2007
    Posts:
    1,441
    News Credits:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Likes:
    +4
    I like to compare Transformers franchise with the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.

    POTC1 had a budget of $150 and ended up with $310
    TF had a budget of $145 and ended up with $319

    POTC2 had a budget of $225 and ended up with $423 and opened on the week after Independence Day (so there is no 5 day weekend to help its box office momentum)
    TF2 has a budget of $200 and could possibly end up with close to $400 and is opening one week BEFORE Independence Day so it also does not have the box office push of a 5 day long weekend
     
  19. omegagoalie

    omegagoalie Cybertronian Puckstopper

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2008
    Posts:
    1,907
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Likes:
    +0
    Ebay:
    Unless the date is changed...the 26th? What a boring date!:) 
     
  20. Poho

    Poho That's MISTER Poho to you

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2007
    Posts:
    6,207
    News Credits:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    176
    Likes:
    +1
    to be honest, i think the amount of people who hated it is so insignificant that we can probably expect at least the same domestic gross as the first one. seriously, outside of these boards, i know maybe three people who didn't like it.
     

Share This Page