This. They literally can't afford to move the date—Bumblebee needs to do amazing or Transformers will be subject to a hard rethink at Paramount&Hasbro. There would've been more leeway if TLK wasn't a complete failure and at least did halfway decent.

 

Yeah, I'd side with you. BOP measures interest in the movie at this point in time. They probably take into account movie traffic on various public platforms, ticket booking and so on. They probably have some models that worked out in the past with similar statistics. They may compare other TF movies, movies directed by Travis Knight and starring Hailey Steinfield (neither of those stats are particulary high, to be honest). Plus, it's Christmas time. People will be busy and traveling a lot, so they are more likely to go see a movie in their free time than make a reservation a month before the premiere. Notice that neither of the three leading titles is set for a big opening (Mary Poppins does slightly better than Bumblebee there). Bumblebee doesn't have a big opening, because people aren't really waiting for it. They may go see it, because trailers piqued their interest, but on a later date and not on the premiere day (those are usually for fans  ).

 

I agree with you

 

Bumblebee has that disadventage that he's not a real person. It's difficult to generate a following for someone who cannot twit or do an interview (and let's be honest Lorenzo is not a good mouthpiece  ). One thing other franchises have over Transformers are the real people. Personally, I think that hiring well-known voice actors and focusing on them with interviews would do TF movies so much good. Animation studios do it all the time with their movies.

 

I meant like a week or 2 before Aquaman, not a significant date change. Keep it in the same month.

December 7 would be a good place for either Aquaman or Bumblebee, since there is no big movie opening that day, which would allow either WB or Paramount to make some more money

 

Remember, this is long-range tracking and Box Office Pro often significantly lowballs. I believe their initial Venom tracking had it around $35 million OW. Not to say Bumblebee will be huge, but I do think $20m is low. Also consider that movies released in December have much better legs than they do in the summer (where Transformers movies have traditionally released). A $20m opening would probably land Bumblebee at about $100m domestic (assuming decent reviews and good word of mouth), which would only be $30m below TLK's final domestic total, but with less than half the budget.

 

If Bee makes 103 million or 105 million Domestic that be fine since there budget is 102 million

 

TLK was an all-in gamble by both parties, sure that the film wouldn't fall prey and China would save the day again, and would have been the cornerstone for more 'period' pieces like how BB is an 80s piece to basically just shove Transformers in at various points at history, because the writers couldn't come up with anything better than ripping off History Channel's Ancient Aliens repeatedly. All TLK had to do was not fail.

Which it promptly proceeded to do in spectacular fashion.

Bumblebee, for all of its redesigns and reorientation over the 6 month extension to its available post-processing time, is still ultimately just Hasbro and Paramount trying to salvage something of the movie verse they staked so much and lost over the past decade. If Bumblebee doesn't do well, then forget 'hard rethink' - they're just going to stop making movies period for another decade at the very least while they just concentrate on trying to ensure the brand itself doesn't die. That's why they're in full G1 pander mode with Siege and Cyberverse. It's the best chance they have of keeping the series afloat right now.

Conversely, the Dec. 21st Opening is critical for what both films are targeting: young boys in the 8-12 range. That's when Schools let out for Winter Break in the US and thus opens up the availability for parents to drag their kids to see the film, meaning greater ticket sales.

Nope, you aren't accounting for the advertising budget, which according to SilverOptimus is usually about the same as the film's actual production budget.

Essentially, Bumblebee needs to pull $300 million to pull a profit of maybe $100 million. $400 million would be a full return on total investment. $500 million is the 'the franchise might possibly still have life left in it' butter zone in Paramount's eyes. Hasbro, though, might be more complicated seeing as how I don't think Goldner is going to last much longer as CEO in the wake of the legal situation, regardless of the outcome, as the board of executives probably would want to bring in new blood to reassure investors Hasbro is taking steps to improve its finances.

 

There impossible Bumblebee opening around 15-25 which is worse than Pacific Rim 2. That's totally not legit...Since this movie is base on G1 design and use back the formula of TF1, it should be pleased movie fans no matter in US or foreign country. I can see the opening in US to be around 50 - 65 million and end up 180 - 220 million. While oversea opening at 150- 200 (china alone would hit 70 million mark) and end up 450 - 600 million. Therefore, the worldwide gross would be 600 - 800 million...this is what i believe.

 

Don't forget that a fraction of the ticket price goes to the theatre as well, which means that at $300m worldwide, Bee would probably be breaking even. Of course, there are home video and toy sales to consider as well.
I think no matter the outcome, Bee will be fine, thanks largely to its smaller budget. And as many have noted, it is a much more global film. I think $400-$500m worldwide is not unreasonable, which would be a solid result.

 

To Hasbro, yes - to Paramount? Not too much.

The real question is going to be if that's enough for Paramount to decide they're willing to produce more TF films. Bumblebee essentially is still only happening because it caught caught in a limbo state - already in production when TLK screwed the pooch and HuaHua pulled the contract, then saved only because Hasbro put forward the money necessary...in return for far greater control over the final product since it's been alluded to that Hasbro was pissed over Paramount killing off marketable characters.

 

Yeah, Wtf did Paramount kill off these iconic and marketable characters??

 

Nope

 

Because it was 'progressive' or to put a twist on story telling...or some number of fantasies cooked up you'd find here on the forums defending the last two films.

The reality is that those characters were killed off in AoE because it was in essence a soft reboot stopping just short of truly resetting the setting. What better way to cut ties from the previous story than to just arbitrarily murder every last character possible from the trilogy, leaving only the important ones? To date I've never gotten a straight answer from the film's most hardened defenders about why they had to kill everybody they could get away with and introduce three assholes, instead of simply keeping some and letting those characters develop further. It is kind of a double standard to argue that the new characters are better than the old ones, when the only reason those new characters exist is because the time they got to develop to basically be on the same level as the characters from the previous three films, was denied to the latter in developing them further. AoE wasn't even trying to work off of where DOTM left off - AoE burned it to the ground and built worse bullshit on the ashes instead. TLK tried to course correct and we all saw how THAT went.

 

Seriously you gotta stop being so smug about your point of view. You're kind of putting yourself on the same level as those characters you mentioned.

In the meantime, there's only so much you can do to make characters like Skids or Mudflap work better. :/

 

After being told I was being wrong for so long about it, only for TLK to ultimately prove me right, I think I'm entitled to my opinion.

Given how much people kiss their asses, I'm not sure if you're trying to weaken my point or compliment me.

Oh, yeah, sure, go for the easy targets why don't you. Because apparently Ratchet, Sideswipe, Leadfoot, Top Spin, and Roadbuster weren't deserving of having shits given about them - purely disposable much like the 1986 film treated the majority of the original characters and look how well that turned out. And I didn't forget Dino or Jolt - the former wasn't making it because Ferrari are absolute jackasses about how much they want to control their brand image, and the latter because he wasn't even in the third film (like the Twins in the end) for some reason.

 

I have no idea what part of history you are referring to but....

It's cool that you have an opinion but it's not cool when you're laughing at other people like Nelson from the Simpsons.

And be happy for them.

There's nothing wrong if people like 'garbage'. It's one thing for people to like Venom and another for people that do for example.

And we somehow love that movie.

Also welcome to reality. Copyright is everywhere.

 

People need to stop taking this shit so personally if that's an actual problem. The movies were never going to last and TLK merely hastened the inevitable by about a decade. The sooner people accept the movies were NOT the end-all, be-all of the franchise, the sooner we can all just let this crap fade into memory and move on with our lives.

 

Exactly... I hope you live by those words.

 

The problem with this point is that, whether one likes it or not, DotM, which is my favorite of the first three films, killed off lots of characters, and for the most part those characters were more iconic than the ones AoE killed off: Megatron, Shockwave, Starscream, Soundwave, Laserbeak, Sentinel Prime, Ironhide, Q. Not to mention that Jolt, Skids, and Mudflap do not show up in DotM, and there's not even an explanation. At the very least everyone who doesn't show up in AoE has an in-film explanation as to why they don't show up in that film, which is more than can be said for, well, any of the other sequels. Seems kind of strange that fans blame AoE for killing off characters when DotM way outdid AoE in that department.

There is NO example of Transformers fiction that is the end-all, be-all of Transformers, and that includes G1, G2, Beast Wars, Beast Machines, Animated, RiD, Prime, IDW, Dreamwave, and the movies. BUT the movies are something many fans still enjoy, so why should they fade into memory for those who enjoy them? Should the fans who enjoy the other parts of the brand, like G1, Beast Wars, etc. also have those fade into memory and move on with their lives?

And why do you spend so much time with angry, multi-quote rants about something you think should be forgotten? Seems like you have a hard time forgetting them and moving on yourself!