Long Range Forecast For Transformers: The Last Knight Now Available

Discussion in 'Transformers Movie Discussion' started by SilverOptimus, Apr 29, 2017.

  1. SilverOptimus

    SilverOptimus Movie News Monster Moderator News Staff

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  2. T-Hybrid

    T-Hybrid Gnodab Kidult (He/Him)

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    The last one was awful and made a billion dollars world wide.

    Even if this doesn't make that, I'd be shocked if it bombed. The brand is now entrenched with casual moviegoers and Paramount figured out the formula to make bank in China.

    I have reservations about the success of the toyline (diminishing returns and all) but the film will do fine.
     
  3. Scorpio

    Scorpio Well-Known Member

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    Meh. Its basically the obvious from an outsider perspective. It boils down to educated guess-work which is admittedly what most of us do, except its not really saying anything new here because its just acknowledging the aspects we are already aware of.

    A better comparison would be TF3 to TF4 seeing how the shift to Wahlberg affected the franchise in regards to the box office and using primarily TF4.

    It's also important to note that the 'deminishing returns' may also be due to the economic climate and the decline in cinema.


    Plus i believe the last one was longer than this one will probably end up being - so they'll have time for more showings.
     
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  4. Sixshot93

    Sixshot93 Well-Known Member

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    Well, thank god there's no tedious, tired 'most people don't like Bay' shtick in the Cons.

    Plus, I like ProBoxOffice.
     
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  5. Terradives

    Terradives Well-Known Member

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    Die bayverse die!
     
  6. wowzers

    wowzers Well-Known Member

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    It'll do good

    Good enough to guarantee many more films for the future anyways
     
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  7. Aernaroth

    Aernaroth <b><font color=blue>I voted for Super_Megatron and Veteran

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    Long Range Forecast: Cloudy, with a chance of 'splosions.
     
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  8. Ash from Carolina

    Ash from Carolina Junior Smeghead

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    Two I'd add to the con.

    If the domestic box office is not greater than the production budget then the domestic media will spin it as a failure. Domestic stories still tend to focus on the domestic numbers.

    If the numbers aren't greater this round in China then Paramount will bring home a smaller profit since they are not getting the co-production box office cut this time but the regular box office cut.
     
  9. Autobot Burnout

    Autobot Burnout ...and I'll whisper "No."

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    It'll be profitable, no question about it, but I only give it 50/50 odds of breaking a billion. It needs to shore up the domestic box office and I legitimately don't think it has the capability. Cars 3 comes out the week just before TF5, whereas Despicable Me 3 is the week following TF5.

    And this is a problem because apparently everybody has forgotten that the Transformers franchise sells toys to children. Sure, as far as adult viewership goes there isn't any real competition but outside of the niche fanbase they're not the ones who the toys are marketed to through these films.
     
  10. Music

    Music Primetimus Prime

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    This isn't true at all. Fast and Furious 8 at the moment is at $160 M domestically, which is way under their $250 M budget. From media, all I've heard is that it's the biggest opening movie of all time, which are the global numbers of course.
     
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  11. GirlBot

    GirlBot Mini-Cassette

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    Are we certain it will swing this way? The Transformers are also considered a kid-appeal property. As of now it also bolsters a kid-appeal character. I think that in the end it's not a good placement for either of those films. It will really depend on which brand is more popular with the young crowd.
     
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  12. Shepard Prime

    Shepard Prime 1st Cybertronian Spectre of the Galactic Council

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    I don't worry about Cars more than I am about Despicable Me 3. Can't underestimate the power of the Minions... :D 
     
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  13. GirlBot

    GirlBot Mini-Cassette

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    Actually, the Minions seem to be the most fun movie out of the lot and it may be a factor in kids' choice. The Transformers' trailers rarely go for a fun tone, relying more on the epic (for shame!).

    Judging by the Izzy trailer I think that they are going after the teenage crowd. Movies aimed at that demographic can be quite successful (Harry Potter, Twilight, Hunger Games, Beauty and the Beast). The focus of the first TF was a pair of high-schoolers. It was well-received and resulted in the high numbers for ROTF. The audience was invested enough to come back for DOTM. AOE aimed for a much older audience putting Cade Yeager at the front and it didn't deliver. Putting a high-school kid at the forefront of TLK may actually save the franchise. I am aware that the Izzy trailer was quite controversial, but it did engage the intended audience (to distraught of some parents :lol ).

    Sorry, I think I got a little carried away :lol 
     
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  14. Afterburner

    Afterburner For your health

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    Movies are breaking records every year, so any demise in cinema is not systemic and would simply be an excuse for the poor, poor quality of the TF films.

    We can all hope that this movie does even less than expected - but these numbers would probably be enough to force significant changes. Whether or not those changes are any good though would be highly questionable since Hasbro has shown zero ability to steward this franchise in any respectable way. I would love to be proven wrong. The potential here is vast and they haven't even begun to tap into it.

    You have to really hope someone comes on board who cares though, because they are going to have to lead Hasbro in a better direction, and I'm not sure that person or those people are even out there. We need someone who is a real fan and can say things like "Onslaught shouldn't a green and silver tow truck but Hoist could be" or "Optimus doesn't need flames but Hot Rod does and Rodimus Prime can have them." It's very basic things we take for granted that would add immensely to the positive vibes of the fandom and bring smiles to the faces in the audience rather than looks of bewilderment or disgust.

    A true TF movie can be a great film while still being much more true to the core of TF and the characters. But some bones and egos are going to have to be broken before it happens. Let's shatter those egos and snap them bones! If you can stay away not only from the films but all related merch, I highly encourage you to do so.
     
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  15. Miyako Hakubi

    Miyako Hakubi Well-Known Member

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    Opening weekend is too low while legs is too good for a crowded month. I'm thinking about 90/210
     
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  16. ZapRowsdower

    ZapRowsdower Selling oddities in a shack. In the woods.

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    If Cars and Despicable are the main competition, it means something else: Paramount/Hasbro may have to take a long look at their current model and decide whether or not they TOO should join the CG camp. It's what TMNT did, before returning to a Bay-produced clone of TFs... :rolleyes2 

    I'm really surprised/ashamed Paramount didn't feature more Chinese actors and/or locations - it's clear that China is a strong driving force behind the brand now (especially in box office), so it's rather stubborn to ignore that... or I guess it's the same attitude Hasbro shows toward fans? I.e. they'll go anyway, so why bother doing anything special for them? :lol 
     
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  17. Appleseed

    Appleseed Well-Known Member

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    This site opening prediction is not accurate at all..i totally disagree..they just calculate base on the forecast of the last movie.They didn't even consider the change of writer, cast, storyline and budget..cause this also the main factor that will influence final box office result. And I totally disagree Wonder Woman opening can be higher than Pirates 5 and TF5, that's is just their stubborn opinion. TF4 is the worst movie among all TF movies that's why it makes the lowest grossing in Domestic boxoffice. Audiences would have notice there a big changing in TLK and i believe domestic will do better than TF4 no matter how. I can see domestic opening day will be around 60 million and 1st weekend around 130million..total domestic will end around 350million..while oversea will achieve around 300million opening weekend and end up total around 1billion..So total worldwide actually will be around 1.3-1.4billion..this is my forecast..let wait and see.
     
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  18. Ash from Carolina

    Ash from Carolina Junior Smeghead

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    If it was Minions 2 I'd low ball the estimate. The little yellow guys just aren't that good on their own. But it is Despicable Me 3 and at least so far the Despicable Me movies have been rather charming fun with the mix of characters. I don't know how it will be to bring in the long lost brother, but hey I'm game for it in a poke at Austin Powers sort of way.
     
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  19. Miyako Hakubi

    Miyako Hakubi Well-Known Member

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    While I would love to see TLK does better than AOE, your prediction is just plain ridiculous. I don't doubt the chance a Transformers movie makes over 300 millions domestically again since they did it two times in the patst, but one billions overseas with currently exchange rate would be like 1,1-1,2 billions in 2014, while AOE made 858 millions at that time. Such a big jump is impossible.
     
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  20. SilverOptimus

    SilverOptimus Movie News Monster Moderator News Staff

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    You might get an answer here regarding what position Transformers Live Action Movies are in nowadays:
    How Transformers Became A Best-Case Scenario For Hollywood Adaptation - Transformers News - TFW2005
     
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